Weekly Review
This week from January 27 to February 3, BTC reached a high of around $106,457 and a low of around $91,231, with a fluctuation range of about 14%. Observing the coin distribution chart, there is a large amount of trading volume around the $95,000 level, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
1. 1.68 million coins in the 60,000-68,000 range;
2. 2.42 million coins in the 90,000-100,000 range;
• The probability of not breaking below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 85%;
• The probability of not breaking above 110,000-115,000 in the short term is 69%.
Important News
Economic News
1. On February 3, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the Treasury Department and the Department of Commerce to establish a sovereign wealth fund that could be used to acquire assets like TikTok.
2. Trump announced that the 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, originally scheduled for implementation on February 4, will be delayed by a month in response to the two countries' responses to US concerns.
3. On February 3, US President Trump said the Federal Reserve's decision last week to keep interest rates unchanged was "appropriate given the current circumstances".
4. Affected by tariff policies, US stocks experienced volatility. On February 3, the S&P 500 index closed down 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.75%.
5. Goldman Sachs expects the US economy to grow 2.5% in 2025, exceeding market consensus for the third consecutive year and outperforming other developed economies.
Crypto Ecosystem News
1. US Establishes Cryptocurrency Working Group: On January 23, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a cryptocurrency working group to propose new digital asset regulations and explore the possibility of establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve.
2. EU Crypto Asset Markets Act (MiCA) Officially Effective: In January 2025, the EU officially implemented the Crypto Asset Markets Act (MiCA), aiming to provide a safe, transparent and trusted regulatory framework for the digital asset market, promoting market stability and investor protection.
3. Interpretation of Saudi Arabia's Cryptocurrency Policy: On February 4, 2025, Web3Caff published an article analyzing Saudi Arabia's regulatory policy on cryptocurrencies, pointing out that Saudi Arabia is shifting from conservative to actively embracing, and the issue of cryptocurrency tax compliance is increasingly being emphasized.
4. On February 4, the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it will launch a blockchain-based digital token trading platform.
5. US President Trump issued an executive order to create a US sovereign wealth fund. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis hinted that this could mean the US will purchase BTC.
Long-term Insights: For observing our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term Exploration: For analyzing what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term Observation: For analyzing the short-term market conditions; as well as the probability of some directions and certain events occurring under certain premises
Long-term Insights
• Net inflows of crypto ETFs
• Structure of long-term investors
• Large net transfers from exchanges
The net inflows of crypto ETFs indicate that foreign and US institutional funds still have a willingness to buy.
The proportion of long-term participants is around 40%, and the market is in a slightly unstable state.
The large net transfers from exchanges show that whales have recently seen outflows, which means inflows of funds. This suggests that whales are relatively optimistic about future prices within the crypto ecosystem.
Medium-term Exploration
• Liquidity supply
• Whale composite score
• ETH exchange net flows
• BTC exchange net flows
• Proportion of long-term participant supply
• Annualized structure of high-weight selling pressure
The liquidity supply has recently shown a downward trend, which may lead to a certain lack of liquidity in the market. In a shrinking environment, this may also lead to greater price volatility, possibly due to an imbalance between supply and demand.
The recent whale score has been unstable, fluctuating between "Very High" and "Very Low". The internal divergence of whales may also be a reason for the recent violent fluctuations.
The net flows of ETH on exchanges have also experienced violent fluctuations recently, which may indicate the presence of a group engaged in targeted selling. It has now returned to the level before the selling.
The hoarding of BTC is still increasing, and there is still a large demand in the market.
The supply ratio of long-term participants is gradually decreasing. From the perspective of long-term and short-term participant structure, as long-term participants continue to exit, the active short-term supply in the market may increase, which may lead to an increase in the available supply. However, from the perspective of BTC exchange net flows, the potential selling pressure in the exchanges has decreased, and the impact of the exchange of long-term and short-term positions on the market may not have yet affected the on-chain structure.
The high-weight selling pressure is slowly decreasing. If it can be reduced to the blue area, the impact of large-scale selling on the market may also be reduced.
Short-term Observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Option open interest ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• BTC exchange net flows
• ETH exchange net flows
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net flows
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is close to the green area, and the derivatives risk is reduced.
The risk factor has moved from the red zone to the neutral green zone, and the liquidation of long positions has basically been completed. The market is expected to turn to consolidation or liquidation of short positions this week.
The put-call ratio is at a low level, and the trading volume is at a medium level.
The market decline has led to a surge in derivatives trading volume.
The implied volatility of options has fluctuated in the short term.
Sentiment Rating: Neutral
For BTC, the recent decline has not caused a true panic sentiment. At the current price level, without particularly extreme conditions, the market is unlikely to see a significant panic selling (orange line), and the positive sentiment (low) also remains in a relatively low state. Overall, this state is more characterized by consolidation.
New and active addresses are at a medium-low level.
Spot and Selling Pressure Rating: BTC is in a state of large outflows, while ETH still has large inflows.
BTC's exchange net flows have been in a state of large outflows.
ETH's exchange net flows had large inflows last week, and the inflows have not yet been digested.
The market experienced high-weight selling pressure this week, but it has been alleviated.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of depletion, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat compared to last week.
After a brief recovery, purchasing power is once again in a state of depletion.
The purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat compared to last week.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is buying interest at 90,000; there is selling interest at 100,000.
There is buying interest around the 90,000 price level; there is selling interest around the 100,000-110,000 price level.
There is buying interest around the 90,000 price level; there is selling interest around the 100,000-110,000 price level.
There is buying interest around the 90,000 price level; there is selling interest around the 110,000 price level.
Weekly Summary:
News Summary:
1. From a macro perspective, we are currently at a node in an atypical economic cycle, and trends such as disruptive artificial intelligence are shaping various industries and global trends.
2. In the US stock market, more attention needs to be paid to the opportunities brought about by the transformation driven by technological advancements.
3. For the crypto market, a relatively bullish outlook is maintained for the next two quarters.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
1. ETFs show that overseas institutional funds in the US still have a buying tendency;
2. From the perspective of the proportion of long-term investors, the market is entering a relatively unstable state;
3. The whales in the crypto space are still relatively optimistic about the future.
• Market Positioning:
Unstable ascent.
On-chain Medium-term Exploration:
1. Liquidity is currently slightly declining, which may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand;
2. Whales still have divergent views;
3. ETH has shown signs of targeted selling recently, and the current internal balance has returned to a normal level.
4. BTC still has accumulation demand;
5. The proportion of long-term participants has decreased;
6. The selling pressure from high-weight entities has decreased.
• Market Positioning:
Slowdown, volatility
The on-spot pressure has decreased, the pace has become slower, and attention should be paid to short-term abnormal fluctuations.
On-chain Short-term Observation:
1. The risk factor is in the green zone, and the risk of derivatives has decreased.
2. The number of new active addresses is at a medium-low level.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of exchanges shows that BTC is in a state of large outflow accumulation, while ETH still has a large inflow accumulation.
5. Global purchasing power is in a state of depletion, and the purchasing power of stablecoins remains flat compared to last week.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows buying interest at 90,000 and selling interest at 100,000.
7. The probability of BTC not breaking below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 85%; the probability of it not breaking above 110,000-115,000 in the short term is 69%.
• Market Positioning:
For BTC, the market sentiment is still neutral, and the recent decline has not caused substantial panic selling. Observing the on-chain positions, they are still relatively "diamond-handed". It is expected that this week may see a small-scale derivatives liquidation of short positions or a volatile market performance, and the probability of a large-scale decline is relatively low.
Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not constitute directional opinions on investment; please view them cautiously and prevent the risk of black swan events in the market.
Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:
Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats
Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App
Twitter Official Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia
