Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
However, compared to the organization of ideas, some partners seem more willing to ask for a definitive answer, such as the messages I have recently received on the public account asking when they can exit the top. Regarding such questions, the same thing applies - we cannot directly give you a clear answer, first because I do not know your specific position, second because I do not know your goals and risk preferences, and third because I cannot accurately predict the market trend.
1. You need to consider the issue of selling (exiting the top) based on your own position and goals
For example, when we started a new round of Bit-dollar cost averaging plan in 2022, we set a target of 3-5 times the return for this cycle. Considering the average cost basis and personal target expectations, the selling plan was to start reducing positions in batches when Bit breaks through $100,000.
Of course, the above is just my personal example. In other words, when to sell, whether to exit the top now... such questions are not for others to provide the answer, but for you to consider based on your own goals and plans. Each person's risk preference, target setting, holding coins, etc. are different, no one can always buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point, it's not that you can directly ask a question like "when can I exit the top" and I can tell you a definite answer, moreover, my own answer (personal trading style) may not be suitable for everyone.
In short, what we can provide is mainly some ideas or methodological aspects, and these all need you to draw inferences and further form a set of methods or strategies that suit yourself.
2. The market is unpredictable, and any prediction is a probabilistic behavior
Trading is not about pursuing 100% certainty, which is not achievable, just like a poor loser trying to pursue Fan Bingbing, there will be no result. What we need to do is to pursue those high probability things, such as hoarding Bit, I think there is a 99% probability that I can make money, so I decided to invest at least 80% of my position to persist in this.
No matter how much a person understands the market, it is almost impossible to determine the bottom and top of a cycle, the only thing that can be determined is a reasonable range that one considers. In the e-book "Blockchain Methodology" published by Talk Li Talk Outside last year, we have also made several price forecasts for Bit, for example, in an article in February 2024 we mentioned that I personally tend to favor the range of $100,000-$120,000, and this range will also be the range I start to consider batch selling.
But this so-called price forecast is just a speculative conclusion based on some data indicators, that is, we will think that this result is likely to be achieved (if the opposite result eventually occurs, we will also have a corresponding Plan B), and we will optimize our goals and operational strategies based on this, nothing more.
Of course, Bit has now broken through $100,000 and is adjusting in the high range area, as for whether Bit will continue to go to $150,000 or $170,000, or fall back to $50,000, these results are no longer so important to us, as long as we strictly execute the batch selling plan according to the established plan. As for the new round of Bit-dollar cost averaging plan, we will consider formulating it again in 2026.
3. Instead of looking for a definitive answer from others, it's better to do more research on indicators
In the past articles of Talk Li Talk Outside, we have indeed shared and sorted out a lot of various tools and indicators, if you can persist in keeping records, and select some data dimensions from them to design your own exit indicator, then this will definitely be more reliable than you leaving messages everywhere asking "when should I sell".
Next, let's briefly summarize a few indicators for your reference. At the same time, I will also directly list a summary table as an attachment, which can also be seen as a supplement to the previous article (How to Design Your Own Exit Indicator):
- RSI
From a historical perspective, when the RSI value breaks through 90, it indicates that the market is entering the final stage, and it usually reaches a stage-wise peak within the next 4-7 weeks, and this process is often accompanied by a divergence pattern (i.e., the RSI value decreases, but the asset price continues to rise).
- NUPL
When this indicator enters the Euphoria/Greed zone, i.e., the NUPL value is >75%, it usually means that the market may be approaching a stage-wise peak.
- Pi Cycle Top
This indicator uses two moving averages to predict the top of Bit, when the two lines tend to approach or directly cross, it means that the market may be approaching a stage-wise peak.
- Mayer Multiple
This indicator compares the current Bit price with the 200-day moving average, and from a historical perspective, when this indicator reaches a value of 2.4, it means that the market may be approaching a stage-wise peak.
- MVRV Z-Score
This indicator uses historical trends to identify whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued, and according to history, when the MVRV Z-Score breaks through 6, it means that the market may be approaching a stage-wise peak.
Since this is just an example, we'll just list these 5 indicators here. If we further summarize all the required indicators into a table, it will be able to provide a better reference for our operations, as shown in the figure below.
In addition, you need to modify the reference sell-off range in the template table above based on your own target and risk preference, that is, if your risk preference is relatively small, then you don't need to set such a high reference range. To facilitate everyone's viewing, I have directly placed the table attachment corresponding to the above image in the Tencent Cloud Disk, and at the same time, some commonly used indicator tool websites have also been added, so those who are too lazy to make their own tables can directly download and use them (you can further optimize and expand them based on the existing tables).
Of course, since most of the indicators are based on the results or conclusions of historical data, and some indicators also have a certain lag, the indicators can only play an auxiliary role. In addition to the indicators, we can also comprehensively consider some macroeconomic factors, policy trends, and changes in liquidity (the behavior and supply-demand relationship of the market itself).
However, to put it bluntly, no matter how many indicators there are, position management (including crisis management plans) is more important than that, because the top of the market is always full of lies (such as lies on the news front or message front), and what we are doing is not to defeat the market, but only to think about the intentions of the main force (follow the main force) or to defeat the vast majority of ordinary retail investors in the market.
At the end of the article, let's briefly review what interesting things happened this week:
1/ Jupiter announced through the X platform that they have acquired Moonshot. As shown in the figure below.
Moonshot was launched in July 2024 and is an application that allows users to directly buy and sell Memecoin using fiat currency. It initially gained attention due to the popularity of tokens such as MOODENG and SPX6900 issued on the platform, and last week it went viral again due to the launch of the TRUMP token, even briefly topping the finance category download chart on the App Store (US region). The Moonshot mentioned here is a project incubated by the Pump fun incubation team Alliance DAO, not the Moonshot product under DexScreener that we introduced in a previous article.
2 / Grayscale has applied for a SOL ETF, and CoinShares has applied for XRP and LTC ETFs. As shown in the figure below.
In last week's article (January 15th), we have already sorted out some related content. Currently, in addition to the ETH ETF, we will most likely see the second Altcoin ETF approved this year, which is good news for the market's liquidity. As shown in the figure below, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase recently said in a report that potential Altcoin ETFs could bring in $14 billion in inflows within 6 to 12 months.
3/ Ledger co-founder David Balland and his wife were kidnapped in Vierzon, France, and the kidnappers demanded a ransom of 10 million euros, and even cut off Balland's finger as a bargaining chip. However, the French National Gendarmerie Intervention Group (GIGN) has rescued Balland and his wife in Châteauroux, and 10 suspects aged 20-40 have been arrested.
4/ Circle (the issuer of USDC) announced the launch of Circle Paymaster, which allows users to directly use USDC to pay Gas fees on Arbitrum and Base chains without having to hold and use ETH. As shown in the figure below. Of course, the Paymaster will charge a 10% Gas fee for each transaction. It is said that this product will also be extended to the Ethereum, Polygon and Solana chains in the future.
5/ Ads Power was hacked, and it is said that funds from more than 20,000 wallet addresses were stolen. The shaved sheep have finally been fleeced by the hackers.
The bloggers who have recently promoted Ads Power must be heartbroken. In fact, I also received a collaboration invitation email from this project a couple of weeks ago, but since I have never accepted any project advertisements, I avoided it, otherwise I would probably be scolded by everyone now.
6/ Trump signed the first crypto executive order "Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets", which mainly involves: clarifying the regulatory framework for the crypto industry, exploring the establishment of a national digital asset reserve, and repealing SAB 121 that prevents institutions from holding cryptocurrencies.
In addition, Trump also pardoned Ross William Ulbricht (the founder of Silk Road, whose story with Bitcoin we mentioned in the article on January 3rd), and domestic crypto projects (Made in USA) will enjoy zero capital gains tax... There is quite a lot of news this week, but the market is rather boring, with BTC consolidating around $100,000, and ETH still struggling to defend the $3,200 level.
Note: The above content is just personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute any investment advice.
