How to accurately predict the top of the bull market? You must master these 9 key indicators!
Accurately predicting the top of the crypto market bull market is almost impossible, but you can use these data indicators to judge whether the market is approaching the top.
If 5 signals appear at the same time, then you either have accumulated enough wealth, or you can only go back to work at McDonald's...
Now, let's unveil the secrets of the end of the bull market.
1. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Market sentiment indicator
When NUPL enters the frenzy/greed zone (above 75%), it usually means that the market is approaching the top, and investors are becoming overly optimistic.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Short-term overbought signal
When RSI exceeds 90, the market is usually in an extremely overbought state, and historical data shows that the high point is usually formed within 4-7 weeks, followed by a correction.
3. Altcoin Season Index
Altcoins vs. Bitcoin
When the index exceeds 85, it means that Altcoins as a whole have outperformed Bitcoin, which is usually a sign that the market is entering a frenzy stage.
4. MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value)
Judging whether the market is extremely overvalued
When the MVRV Z-Score exceeds 6, it indicates that the market may be approaching the top and needs to be wary of potential correction risks.
5. Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Accurately identify the top of the Bitcoin bull market
This indicator has successfully predicted the major price highs of Bitcoin in multiple cycles.
When it sends a warning signal, it means that the bull market is about to peak.
6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
Trend changes and momentum signals
When MACD forms a death cross, it means that the market momentum is weakening and the trend may reverse.
7. MFI (Money Flow Index)
Monitoring buying and selling pressure
Similar to RSI, but MFI combines trading volume data. When it shows extreme overbought, it usually signals that the market has reached its peak.
8. Composite Business Cycle Index
Macroeconomic impact
When this index exceeds 50, it indicates that the market may be about to enter a peak stage.
9. Mayer Multiple
Price vs. 200-day moving average
Historical data shows that when the Mayer Multiple reaches 2.4, Bitcoin is usually at the peak of the bull market.
Conclusion
Although it is difficult to accurately predict the market top, these 9 indicators can help you more scientifically assess the market position. The bull market frenzy can make you earn a lot, but without a clear exit strategy, it may also make you go back to the pre-liberation era.
