APTOS December 12th Unlock Analysis: $1.91 Level Breakthrough Prospect Assessment
TL;DR
APT will release 11.31M tokens (approximately $19.8 million, representing 1.5% of the circulating supply) in UTC on December 11-12, distributing them to core contributors, the community, investors, and the foundation. The price has fallen from a high of $1.91 on December 9 to the current $1.70, technically showing oversold conditions (daily RSI 29.59), but short-term momentum is weak. The unlocking scale is relatively moderate, on-chain data shows signs of whale accumulation, and social sentiment is focused on ecosystem growth rather than selling pressure concerns. A break above $1.91 requires increased trading volume, with a probability of about 40%; if the $1.74 support level is breached, the target is the $1.64 liquidation zone, with a probability of 60%.
Core Analysis
Unlock event details
Unlocking schedule and scale
| date | Unlock quantity | Value ($1.70) | Percentage of circulating supply | Main recipient |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 11 | 11,309,783 APT | $19.8M | 1.5% | Core contributors (3.96M), community (3.21M), investors (2.81M), foundation (1.33M) |
| December 12 | 159,655 APT | $0.27M | 0.02% | Daily linear release |
Before unlocking, the circulation was 736M APT , which increased to 747.8M APT after unlocking, with a total mintage of approximately 1.186B APT.
Token economics structure
| Assignment Category | Total | percentage | Release mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staking Rewards | 1,519M APT | 60.3% | Dynamically released, with the annualized return decreasing from 7% to 3.25%. |
| Community | 510M APT | 20.3% | TGE releases 125M, with the remaining 10 years of linearity (1/120 months). |
| Core Contributors | 190M APT | 7.5% | 12-month cliff, followed by 4-year linear |
| foundation | 165M APT | 6.5% | TGE releases 5M, with the remaining 10 years of linear growth. |
| investor | 135M APT | 5.4% | 12-month cliff, followed by 4-year linear |
As of December 11, 55.53% of the FDV has been unlocked, and full release will continue until 2032.
Historical Unlocking Impact
Monthly unlocks from July to December 2025 are expected to remain stable at 11.3M APT, a significant decrease from the 45-66M APT seen in early 2024. Historical data shows high price volatility within 7 days of unlocking, but no sustained sell-off pattern; the unlocks are primarily absorbed by staking and community holdings. The December unlock size (1.5% of circulating supply) is relatively moderate, and the linear release design reduces the risk of supply shocks.
On-chain data analysis
Holder distribution and whale movements
| index | data | trend |
|---|---|---|
| Number of unique addresses | 47,851,937 | Stable growth |
| Top 20 holdings percentage | 12.5% | whale dominance |
| Single largest position | 19,999,979 APT (2.7%) | The largest outside of foundations |
| CEX open interest | Downtrend | Liquidity tightening |
The top three holders include: a whale address (20M APT), the Aptos Foundation wallet (17.4M APT), and another whale address (16M APT), indicating dominance by institutional and long-term holders. The continuous accumulation of over 50,000 APT by large holders since the beginning of 2024 suggests increasing confidence.
Trading activity trends (November 27 - December 11)
- Average daily trading volume : 6.5 million transactions, peaking at 7.54 million transactions on December 9 (+13%).
- Daily active users (DAU) : Average 1.3M, peak 1.47M on November 30th.
- Token transaction volume : $250M daily average, peaking at $367M on December 1st.
- Network performance : TPS 65-87, block time 61-74ms (stable)
Activity surged before the unlock, with DAU and trading volume increasing by 10-15% week-over-week, but dipped slightly on December 10. 24-hour spot trading volume soared 142% to $260M, with a turnover ratio of 0.27, indicating market activity but also pressure to absorb new supply.
Pledged Distribution
The daily staking rewards distribution is $244K-$326K (approximately 280K daily), allocated from the total 813.8M APT staked (representing 68.6% of the total supply). The high staking ratio limits the circulating tokens, providing price support, but the daily net fees are negative ($242K to -$324K), reflecting the network's inflationary pattern of subsidizing validators.
Technical Analysis
Price movements across multiple timeframes (as of 10:05 UTC, December 11)
| Timeframe | Current price | RSI(14) | MACD signal | Key moving average positions | Bollinger Bands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | $1.701 | 34.61 | Bearish crossover (-0.0053) | Below all MA | Approaching the lower rail (1.659) |
| 4 hours | $1.701 | 39.64 | Deepening bearish outlook (-0.0104) | Below EMA/SMA | Lower-middle range (1.682-1.790) |
| Daily chart | $1.701 | 29.59 | Early bullish divergence (+0.0141) | Much lower than all MA | Approaching the lower rail (1.558) |
The current price has retreated 11% from the December 9 high of $1.91, and is looking for support in the $1.70-$1.74 range. The daily RSI is deeply oversold (29.59) and the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting that sellers have exhausted their selling pressure, but the 1-hour/4-hour charts still show short-term weakness.
Key support and resistance levels
- Key resistance : $1.91 (recent high, target $2.10 if it breaks through)
- Secondary resistance levels : $1.80 (recent breakout level), $1.88 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper rail)
- Key support levels : $1.74 (Double Botto pattern), $1.70 (current price/psychological level)
- Strong support : $1.64 (cumulative $2.25M long position liquidation zone)
The moving averages form a dense resistance zone in the 1.80-2.64 range, and the daily EMA(12) is located at $1.884. A short-term rebound needs to recover this level first.
Derivatives Market Status
| index | numerical values | change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total open interest | $188.3M | -4.91% (24h) | Leverage cooling |
| Binance holdings | $47.2M | -6.56% (24h) | Major exchanges reduced positions |
| Funding rates | Binance -0.015% / Bybit +0.01% | neutral | No extreme bias |
| 24-hour settlement | $605K (Long $559K / Short $47K) | Bullish dominance | Downward pressure verification |
The decline in open interest reflects stop-loss orders and a wait-and-see attitude among long positions, but the 0.62% increase in 1-hour open interest suggests a tentative return of long positions. The liquidation heatmap shows a $2.25M long liquidation cluster between $1.64 and $1.70, forming technical support; the $2.26M short liquidation at $1.78 may boost a rebound.
Trading volume pattern
- The shrinking trading volume in the 1-hour and 4-hour periods (-8,885 / -414K) indicates a lack of follow-through momentum in the decline.
- The daily trading volume was 30% higher than the 30-day moving average when testing $1.80, confirming the validity of the breakout.
- The OBV decreased throughout the entire time period (1h: -9.17M, 4h: -16.51M, 1d: -93.86M), indicating continuous distribution.
- After the breakdown, selling volume was only 10.8% of the 30-day moving average, suggesting that bearish pressure has weakened.
Recently, institutional buying has emerged at the Double Botto level of $1.842, which, combined with the oversold technical indicators, supports a possible short-term rebound.
Social sentiment analysis
Mainstream narrative themes
Twitter discussions focused on the growth of the Aptos ecosystem, including:
- Central status of stablecoins : Stablecoin supply reaches a new high for the year, supporting mainstream assets such as USDT/USDC.
- DeFi TVL Surges : Aave Incentive Program Drives TVL to $26M, Chainlink Integration Enhances Infrastructure
- Developer activities : Long-term development signals such as ecosystem funding and course releases
The December 12th unlocking event received very little attention on social media, with no highly interactive tweets directly discussing the impact of the unlocking or concerns about selling pressure, indicating that the community did not regard it as a major risk event.
Key opinion leader perspectives
| KOL | position | Core Argument |
|---|---|---|
| @defi_mago | bullish | November TVL growth and USDG0 stablecoin integration drive ecosystem value. |
| @FabiusDefi | Neutral to more | Stablecoin supply has seen significant year-on-year growth, positioning itself as a Web3 stablecoin hub. |
| @crypto_condom | bearish | Lack of a competitive moat, declining TVL, founder Vesting has already completed [their work]. |
The influencers did not specifically comment on the December unlock or the $1.91 price point; the overall narrative leaned towards long-term ecosystem development rather than short-term trading catalysts.
Selling pressure level
Twitter/Reddit searches show:
- Zero high-quality content discussion in December unlocks selling pressure risk.
- External analysis only mentions potential short-term liquidity risks, drawing parallels to the EIGEN unlocking event.
- The linear release structure (10 years) and the community/contributor percentage are considered likely to be absorbed by long-term holders.
- There was no consistent sell-off after the historical unlocking, indicating that the staking lock-up mechanism played a stabilizing role.
Reddit mentions an early November unlock but lacks specific discussion about December, indicating that the unlock has become a "regular supply increase" rather than a catalyst event.
Emotional Orientation at $1.91
- Overall polarity : Bullish, based on narratives of ecological growth and technology integration
- Pricing specificity : No high-quality content anchors sentiment at $1.91 or unlocks impact.
- Technical Analysis : External sources mention a Double Botto at $1.84 and institutional buying support, pushing the price up to $1.87+.
- Risk Warning : A bearish view predicts the market capitalization will fall below $1 billion (based on historical vesting data), but this is not tied to the December event.
Overall social sentiment is decoupled from the unlocking event, focusing on long-term value and potentially underestimating the impact of short-term supply increases.
Breakthrough Scenario Analysis
Bullish breakout path (probability ~40%)
condition :
- The price broke through $1.91 at the close of the 4-hour trading session, with trading volume exceeding the 30-day average by more than 30%.
- The 4-hour RSI rose to 50+, and the MACD golden cross was confirmed.
- Unlocked tokens were absorbed through staking or long-term holding, with no large inflows into exchanges.
Target : $2.10 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper line + psychological level)
Supporting factors :
- The daily RSI is extremely oversold (29.59), providing room for a rebound.
- Early bullish divergence in the MACD histogram
- $1.842 institutional buying and ETF inclusion expectations
- With only 1.5% of the circulating supply unlocked, it has historically not triggered a sustained sell-off.
- A 68.6% collateralization ratio locks up most of the supply.
Bearish rejection path (probability ~60%)
condition :
- The $1.91 resistance level was rejected, accompanied by selling pressure on unlocked tokens.
- It broke below the Double Botto support at $1.74.
- Trading volume continued to shrink, and the 1-hour/4-hour RSI failed to recover.
Target : First stop at $1.64 to clear the consolidation zone, second stop at $1.58 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart)
Stress factors :
- All timeframes are below key moving averages (short/medium/long-term downtrend structure)
- OBV remains negative, indicating significant distribution pressure.
- In the past 24 hours, 92% of long positions have been liquidated ($559K/$605K).
- The 4-hour and 1-hour MACD indicators are deepening their bearish trend, with short-term momentum weakening.
- High volatility period for 7 days after historical unlocking
Neutral tidying scenario
If the price consolidates smoothly after the initial breakout, it may range between $1.74 and $1.80, awaiting a clearer market direction. $1.80 is a key level; a break above it would signal a bullish move, while a break below it would test the $1.74/$1.64 support level.
in conclusion
APT faces the unlocking of 11.31M tokens ($19.8 million, 1.5% circulating supply) on December 11-12. The current price of $1.70 is 11% below the key resistance level of $1.91. Technically, there are two signals: the daily oversold condition (RSI 29.59) coupled with an early bullish MACD divergence suggests potential for a rebound, but short-term (1-hour/4-hour) momentum is weak and all moving averages form a resistance zone. On-chain data shows whale accumulation and a high staking rate (68.6%) providing support, but the continuously declining OBV reflects distribution pressure. Social sentiment focuses on the ecosystem growth narrative, with low attention to the unlocking event, indicating that the market is not overly concerned about selling pressure, but may be underestimating the short-term supply shock.
The key to breaking through $1.91 lies in: (1) the absorption of unlocked tokens through staking/long-term holding, preventing inflows into exchanges; (2) increased trading volume coupled with 4-hour technical correction; and (3) market sentiment shifting from an ecosystem narrative to a trading catalyst. In summary, the short-term bias is towards consolidation between $1.74 and $1.80, awaiting the digestion of the unlocked tokens. A breakthrough of $1.91 requires stronger market consensus, while a drop below $1.74 would trigger a technical decline to the $1.64 liquidation zone. Investors should pay attention to on-chain flows and derivatives holdings changes within 3-7 days after the unlocking on December 11-12, as a directional confirmation signal.