<div><style>
    .source {
      font-size: 0;
    }
    .source a {
      display: inline-block;
      vertical-align: bottom;
    }
    .source img {
      pointer-events: none;
      border-radius: 50%;
      vertical-align: bottom;
      padding: 2px;
      display: inline;
      margin: 0;
    }
  </style>
<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>Tether projects profits of $15 billion this year, with a 99% profit margin. USDT circulation has surpassed $183 billion, with continued expansion in market share and liquidity. USDT's market capitalization recently surged by $15.4 billion in the past 60 days, driven by a simultaneous increase in on-chain activity and capital inflows.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>Driven by events, USDT liquidity is exploding. Pay attention to large net inflows/outflows and on-chain transfer peaks on mainstream exchanges. If the market value growth slows down or there is an abnormal pullback, be wary of arbitrage shocks in the short term.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-25 16:13</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>Tether&#39;s annual profit may reach $15 billion: Analysis of the reshaping of USDT liquidity landscape</h1><h2> Key Points</h2><p> Tether projects net profit of <strong>$15 billion</strong> in 2025, a 15% increase from $13 billion in 2024, primarily driven by USDT issuance growing to $183 billion and a stratospheric 99% profit margin. Despite continued expansion in absolute terms, USDT&#39;s market share declined from 70% at the end of 2024 to 60% in October 2025, primarily due to the EU&#39;s MiCA regulations. The liquidity landscape is reshaping: CEXs still dominate (accounting for 80-90% of trading volume), but DEXs&#39; share has increased from 5% to 15%. Cross-chain distribution is shifting toward Ethereum (55%), while Tron remains stable (42%). Rising institutional adoption and regulatory compliance demands are driving the rise of competing products like USDC.</p><h2> Tether&#39;s profit model and $15 billion goal</h2><h3> Income structure analysis</h3><p> Tether&#39;s core profitability comes from the yield on its <strong>$127 billion U.S. Treasury bond portfolio</strong> . According to Q2 2025 data, the company&#39;s net profit was $4.9 billion (US$5.7 billion in the first half of the year). Its main revenue sources include:</p><table><thead><tr><th> Sources of income</th><th> Proportion</th><th> Contribution in 2024</th><th> 2025 Expectations</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> U.S. Treasury bond yields</td><td> 50-60%</td><td> $7 billion</td><td> About US$9 billion</td></tr><tr><td> Gold/Bitcoin appreciation</td><td> 30-40%</td><td> $5 billion</td><td> approximately US$4.5 billion</td></tr><tr><td> Secured loan fees</td><td> 5-10%</td><td> &lt;$1 billion</td><td> Gradually reduce</td></tr></tbody></table><p> Tether&#39;s <strong>99% profit margin</strong> stems from its extremely low operating costs and passive income model. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/stablecoin-leader-tether-expects-profit-to-increase-to-15-billion-this-year">The</a> company invests the fiat currency deposited by users in low-risk, high-yield assets, and the interest income is directly converted into profits.</p><h3> Optimization of reserve fund composition</h3><p> As of Q2 2025, Tether&#39;s reserves were $162.6 billion, exceeding its liabilities by $157.1 billion, resulting in $5.5 billion in excess reserves:</p><ul><li> <strong>U.S. Treasury bonds/equivalents</strong> : 78% ($127 billion)</li><li> <strong>Gold reserves</strong> : 4% ($6.5 billion)</li><li> <strong>Bitcoin</strong> : 5% ($7.6 billion)</li><li> <strong>Secured loans and other</strong> : 8% ($13.2 billion, tapering off)</li><li> <strong>Cash and equivalents</strong> : &lt;1% ($64 million)</li></ul><p> This allocation strategy maximizes returns in a high-interest rate environment while maintaining sufficient liquidity to support USDT anchoring.</p><h2> USDT market position and liquidity landscape changes</h2><h3> Market share evolution</h3><p> Although USDT&#39;s absolute size continues to grow, its market share is being diluted:</p><table><thead><tr><th> period</th><th> USDT Market Cap</th><th> market share</th><th> USDC Market Cap</th><th> Total stablecoin market capitalization</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Early 2024</td><td> ~$96 billion</td><td> 70%</td><td> $24.2 billion</td><td> ~$160 billion</td></tr><tr><td> End of 2024</td><td> $137.4 billion</td><td> 65%</td><td> $43.9 billion</td><td> ~$210 billion</td></tr><tr><td> October 2025</td><td> $183 billion</td><td> 59.9%</td><td> $76.3 billion</td><td> &gt;$300 billion</td></tr></tbody></table><p> USDT&#39;s daily trading volume reached $90.5 billion (October 2025), and its monthly trading volume peaked at $1.01 trillion (June 2025), but its market share declined mainly due to regulatory pressure <a href="https://cryptoslate.com/tethers-181b-paradox-how-usdt-keeps-growing-as-its-market-share-collapses-under-mica/">.</a></p><h3> Reshaping cross-chain distribution</h3><p> USDT&#39;s multi-chain layout has changed significantly:</p><ul><li> <strong>Ethereum</strong> : increased from 35% to 55% ($99.9 billion), benefiting from L2 expansion and institutional interest</li><li> <strong>Tron</strong> : Maintains 42% ($77.5 billion), maintaining its low-cost advantage in emerging markets</li><li> <strong>Solana</strong> : Fluctuated significantly, down from 8% in Q2 to 1.3% currently ($2.4 billion)</li><li> <strong>Other chains</strong> : Emerging chains such as Aptos grew 8 times to $750 million</li></ul><h3> Deep improvement in liquidity</h3><p> 1% of global USDT trading depth is approximately $200 million (a 50% year-on-year increase):</p><ul><li> <strong>CEX liquidity</strong> : Binance BTC/USDT pair depth is approximately $20 million (buy) / $18 million (sell)</li><li> <strong>DEX liquidity</strong> : Uniswap ETH/USDT pair depth is $2-5 million, a 150% increase over last year</li><li> <strong>Regional differences</strong> : MiCA regulations lead to a 10% decrease in EU liquidity, but a 20% increase in Asia/emerging markets</li></ul><h2> Regulatory impact and competitive landscape</h2><h3> Impact of MiCA regulations</h3><p> The EU MiCA regulation (effective June/December 2024) requires stablecoins to comply, resulting in:</p><ul><li> USDT is delisted from EU exchanges (e.g. Binance and OKX restrict trading for EU users)</li><li> EU USDT trading volume drops 10-15%</li><li> USDC&#39;s market share in the EU has increased by 79% due to its regulatory compliance advantages.</li></ul><p> Tether launched compliant products through its subsidiary StablR/Quantoz and plans to launch USAT in December 2025 to respond to the US GENIUS Act.</p><h3> Rise of competitors</h3><p> USDC is growing rapidly due to its transparency and compliance advantages:</p><ul><li> <strong>Market capitalization growth</strong> : From $24.2 billion at the beginning of 2024 to $76.3 billion (+215%)</li><li> <strong>Institutional preference</strong> : BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. prefer USDC for compliant investment</li><li> <strong>Technical advantages</strong> : monthly audits, better DeFi integration</li></ul><p> Emerging stablecoins such as Ethena’s USDe (up 177.8% to $10.7 billion) are also eroding market share.</p><h2> Community sentiment and market confidence</h2><h3> Positive perspective</h3><p> Influencers are generally optimistic about the sustainability of Tether’s business model:</p><ul><li> <strong>Paolo Ardoino</strong> (Tether CEO) emphasizes long-term sustainability through excess reserves, Bitcoin allocation, and programmability <a href="https://x.com/paoloardoino/status/1950927862556393628">x.com</a></li><li> <strong>Anthony Pompliano</strong> believes Tether has strategic value in the global dollarization process and countering the BRICS challenge</li><li> <strong>Jamie Coutts</strong> sees USDT as a systemic asset tied to US debt and Bitcoin</li></ul><h3> Questioning voices</h3><p> Some analysts expressed concerns about transparency:</p><ul><li> <strong>Bitfinexed</strong> criticized Tether for deliberately circumventing regulatory scrutiny by refusing a full audit <a href="https://x.com/Bitfinexed/status/1874879170477695260">.</a></li><li> <strong>Christopher Bloomstran</strong> questions the rationale for equity financing at a 99% profit margin <a href="https://x.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1970701807354528187">.</a></li><li> The Fed&#39;s warning on &quot;risk assets&quot; has exacerbated market distrust</li></ul><h2> Market Outlook and Conclusion</h2><h3> Growth drivers</h3><ol><li> <strong>Interest rate environment</strong> : U.S. Treasury yields remain high, providing a stable source of income for Tether</li><li> <strong>Emerging market demand</strong> : USDT continues to grow in cross-border payments and inflation hedging</li><li> <strong>Institutional adoption</strong> : Digital asset allocations increased from 1% to 2-5%, driving demand for stablecoins</li><li> <strong>Technological innovation</strong> : multi-chain deployment, AI integration, and other expansion of application scenarios</li></ol><h3> Potential risks</h3><ol><li> <strong>Regulatory uncertainty</strong> : The US GENIUS Act, the EU MiCA, and other factors may further restrict the use of USDT</li><li> <strong>Competition intensifies</strong> : USDC and other compliant stablecoins erode market share</li><li> <strong>Transparency concerns</strong> : Lack of complete audits could trigger regulatory enforcement or a potential delisting panic</li><li> <strong>Interest rate risk</strong> : Central bank rate cuts could compress yields</li></ol><p> Tether&#39;s $15 billion profit forecast reflects its dominant position in the global digital dollar ecosystem, but regulatory compliance and transparency will be key factors in determining its long-term competitiveness. USDT&#39;s liquidity landscape is evolving towards multi-chain, institutionalization, and regulatory compliance. While USDT will maintain its market leadership in the short term, its market share may be further diluted.</p>
