Nick Timiraos

Nick Timiraos

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Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”

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The U.S. economy, which weathered false recession alarms in 2023 and 2024, is entering another uncomfortable summer. “Where this goes all depends on what Trump decides to do next, and candidly, even Trump doesn’t know what Trump will do next.”

The insane lunge by the batter to put the ball in play. The double clutch by the infielder to freeze the runner. The bad throw/bobbled catch at the plate. And the catcher accidentally setting a screen that prevents the pitcher, right there to backup, from getting the tag.

Now that I got over the hilarity of the play, how the fuck did Andy hit this?

Trump is asked about his pick to serve as Fed chair, a position that isn’t open for another 11.5 months: “It’s coming out very soon,” Trump said. He wouldn’t say who he is considering but said he has a “pretty good idea.” Asked about Kevin Warsh, Trump said he’s someone who is regarded highly.

“Phill Swagel expected this. Well, most of it.” ⁦@RichardRubinDC⁩ interviews the CBO director, a Republican who has found himself in the crosshairs of Trump and the GOP for producing the kind of forecasts the budget office always produces

JPM's Mike Feroli: For the Fed, the May jobs report was almost tailor-made to reinforce their bias to sit back for a long while and wait for employment and inflation developments to dictate where policy goes next. It makes the June FOMC meeting a "non-event."

In the OBBB, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott is proposing to amend the Federal Reserve Act to specify how much the Fed can pay employees who don't work on monetary policy It would cut pay for Fed staffers so as not to exceed 0.7x the pay scale used at the FDIC.

If you wanted to see a soft landing, it might look something like this: From April '23 to April '24, the unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.4%. It's held between 4% and 4.2% for the past 12 months. PCE inflation is down to 2.1% (and core, to 2.5%)

On an unrounded basis, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.244% in May from 4.187% in April. The high last year was 4.231% in November. This is the highest unrounded print since October 2021, which was 4.500% twitter.com/NickTimiraos/statu...

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