The popular Silicon Valley program "All-In Podcast" recently released its " 2026 Predictions ," featuring Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks, the crypto AI czar who has moved to Texas. In the program, they made a series of key bets on 2026, ranging from the California wealth tax referendum, AI and business prospects, to geopolitics and asset allocation.
The most contentious topic is the potential wealth tax initiative in California, which has been viewed as a long-running drama about American politics and capital flows in 2026: from whether enough signatures can be collected and whether they can get votes, to the November election and subsequent legal battles, all of which could continue to escalate.
All in the Podcast: California's Wealth Tax – The Risk Itself Is Enough to Drive Capital Away
Background: California proposed a one-time wealth tax of approximately 5% on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion, with retroactive provisions, meaning that even if wealthy individuals move out, they may still be taxed, causing significant tax uncertainty. Many Silicon Valley and crypto billionaires have therefore chosen to relocate out of California before the bill passes to avoid a massive one-time tax bill and the potential for future expansion of the wealth tax, leading to a wave of wealthy people leaving California and sparking considerable discussion.
The program dissected the California wealth tax issue in two parts: the first part focused on whether it could make the California electoral roll, and the second part on whether it would pass if it did. Both Friedberg and Chamath leaned towards the conclusion that it "might not make the vote," but acknowledged that if it did, markets and businesses might relocate to safer markets. The program jokingly remarked that California politics is Democratic, not Republican, so they didn't have an inside story.
Is the US economy in a Trump boom? GDP annual growth forecast falls within the 4.6% to 6% range.
Sacks characterized 2026 as a "Trump boom," citing declining inflation, lower oil prices, lower mortgage costs, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts as catalysts for political and market confidence. In the program, verbal bets on 2026 GDP ranged from approximately 4.6% (Friedberg) to 5%–6% (Sacks, Chamath).
Will Mamdani Moment be the biggest political winner in 2026?
When asked who the biggest political winner of 2026 would be, the answer wasn't Trump. Jason said he was torn between JD Vance and Mamdani moment.
The author adds: "Mamdani moment" is a label that has become popular in American political/media circles in recent months. It is usually used to refer to the expansion of democratic socialist forces symbolized by the rise of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and is seen by some commentators as a key turning point in the Democratic Party's leftward shift, mobilizing voters with a stronger agenda of economic equality and public services.
He considers JD Vance a very competent co-pilot in the Trump administration, defending Trump, not stealing the spotlight, and seeing his poll numbers and Polymarket support steadily rise. He's clearly the most popular on Turning Point USA; he's also an OG on America First.
But Jason still believes that Mamdani Moment will be the biggest political winner in 2026. His advantage is that he is only 34 years old, while Ro Khanna is 49 and has also turned to socialism. He thinks that the easiest way for the Democratic Party to win in 2026 is to go all out on socialism.
During the conversation, Jason felt that Trump had forgotten American workers; his economic approval rating lagged behind his disapproval rating by 58%; inflation remained close to 3%; and he wanted to increase military spending by 50%, but what people cared about was healthcare. He pointed out that Trump had become a complete neoconservative: this year he bombed seven countries and threatened to take over Colombia and Greenland. And who knows if that was just empty talk or real action?
Friedberg asserted that the Democratic Socialist faction (DSA) would further dominate the Democratic Party's agenda, just as the MAGA reshaped the Republican Party.
The biggest political loser of 2026: Democratic centrists and a rewritten political competition structure.
Sacks listed "Democratic centrists/moderates" as the biggest political losers, arguing that fewer House districts are contested and the main threat in the party primaries is more often from the left, forcing moderates to continue shifting to the left.
2026's Biggest Business Winners: Polymarket and Prediction Markets Become News Gateways
Friedberg lists Polymarket as one of the most likely companies to explode in 2026, arguing that prediction markets are not just about trading, but about becoming "information aggregation and narrative portals for real-time events," and could be integrated by more exchanges, brokerages, or platforms. On the other hand, he believes that Huawei's collaboration with SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) is moving deeper into chip stacking, with results far exceeding Western expectations.
On the other hand, Chamath is optimistic that copper will be the commercial winner, arguing that data centers, chips, the military, and infrastructure all heavily rely on conductive materials, and that global supply may struggle to keep up with demand in the medium to long term. Following the current trajectory, global supply will be in dire need by 2040.
David Sacks believes 2026 will be a banner year for IPOs, with the stock market adding trillions of dollars in market capitalization. He predicts that 2026 will reverse this trend, addressing past concerns about a shrinking number of listed companies and the privatization of many others.
Jason's bet is on Amazon: replacing human labor with robots and drastically improving delivery efficiency. He argues that Amazon may become the first company to demonstrate that robots contribute more to the bottom line than humans.
2026's Biggest Business Loser: SaaS Licensing
David Sacks jokingly called himself the biggest business loser because he joined the Trump administration to serve the country while having to liquidate his holdings to remain neutral.
Friedberg believes the state government will face real funding problems this year due to the ongoing scandals of waste, fraud, and abuse. Moreover, he predicts their response won't be to cut off these practices, but rather to perpetuate them. He also anticipates another potential crisis for the state government is unrealized retirement fund liabilities.
Chamath points the finger at the large enterprise software ecosystem: he believes that the two most profitable revenue streams for SaaS, maintenance and migration, will be significantly compressed due to AI agents and automation tools. Enterprise customers will be more flexible, but incremental revenue on the supply side will be thinner.
Jason believes that young white-collar workers in the US will be the biggest business losers because entry-level jobs are becoming increasingly difficult to find, and companies prefer to automate processes with AI rather than train Gen Z graduates. While they will still recruit junior engineers, the number of openings is far fewer than before. On the other hand, the pandemic has led to many schools lowering their standards, resulting in a decline in student quality and making the industry less willing to train new talent.
Best Asset Forecasts for 2026: Market Forecasts, Precious Metals
Regarding top assets, Friedberg is again betting on Polymarket, Chamath is bullish on a basket of key metals, and Sacks favors tech stock supercycles. Jason, on the other hand, lists trading/betting platforms with available cash (such as brokerages and betting platform consolidation) as potential beneficiaries.
AI Czar David Sacks names California mansions as the worst assets of 2026.
David Sacks named California's high-end residential/luxury home market as the worst asset class in 2026, arguing that the shadow of a wealth tax and high transaction taxes will compress liquidity. Chamath is bearish on traditional hydrocarbon energy and believes oil prices are more likely to fall. Friedberg suggests this year will be a stress test for Netflix and traditional media stocks. Jason, meanwhile, points to the narrative of a long-term depreciation risk for the US dollar.
The most anticipated trend of 2026: $50 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions in the LLM industry.
Chamath believes that with escalating geopolitical tensions, regulatory scrutiny, and cross-border oversight, traditional large-scale M&A deals will become more difficult to secure, and the market will increasingly adopt structures such as licensing plus talent transfer. The author adds: Consider Meta's acquisition of Manus, which was subject to scrutiny by the Chinese government, and NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq, which mitigated monopoly risks.
However, Jason believes that 2026 will see a mega-merger on the order of $50 billion. It's possible that one of the Big Seven tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) will acquire one of xAI, Perplexity, or Anthropic. Most of them will likely want to go public, but Jason thinks there will be an offer that's hard to refuse.
Sacks, on the other hand, is betting on the explosion of coding assistant/tool use from a product perspective, believing that its popularity is similar to that of chatbots before their takeoff at the end of 2022 (the author infers that this refers to Claude Code).
2026 Most Counterintuitive Belief: ChatGPT Leader Will Be Surpassed
Jason believes the most counterintuitive belief for 2026 is that ChatGPT's market share will be surpassed, and the data does indeed suggest this. Friedberg, on the other hand, bets on a possible dramatic change in Iranian politics and proposes a counterintuitive framework: after the change in Iran's power structure, the competition within the Middle East may become more complex, and the conflict may not be centered on Israel/Iran, but may shift to a power rebalancing among the Gulf states.
Chamath raised two bolder points: SpaceX may not necessarily IPO, and it might engage in a reverse merger with Tesla in some way. He also suggested that central banks may realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin and are seeking a new form of crypto asset that is "controllable, private, and quantum-resistant."
This article, "All-In Podcast 2026 Predictions: ChatGPT's Market Share Will Be Surpassed, and SpaceX Will Not Seek an IPO?", first appeared on ABMedia .
