Source: Galaxy Research; Translation: Jinse Finance xz
Bitcoin's closing price in 2025 is expected to be roughly the same as the level at the beginning of the year.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a genuine bullish wave in the first ten months of this year. Regulatory reforms continued to advance, ETFs continued to attract funds, and on-chain activity became increasingly active. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th.
However, the market failed to deliver the expected breakthrough after the initial frenzy. Instead, it experienced rotation, repricing, and rebalancing. The disappointment of macroeconomic expectations, a shift in investment narrative, leveraged liquidations, and massive sell-offs by whale collectively disrupted the market equilibrium. Prices declined, confidence waned, and by December, Bitcoin had fallen back to a low of just over $90,000—and the journey in between was far from smooth.
While 2025 may end with a price decline, it still attracted genuine institutional adoption and laid the foundation for the next phase of real-world activation in 2026. In the coming year, we expect stablecoins to transcend traditional payment tracks, tokenized assets to enter mainstream capital and collateral markets, and enterprise-grade Layer 1 blockchains to move from pilot phases to actual settlement. Furthermore, we anticipate public chains will rethink their value capture methods, DeFi and prediction markets will continue to expand, and AI-driven payments will finally manifest on-chain.
Without further ado, here are 26 predictions from Galaxy Research for the cryptocurrency market in 2026.
1. Bitcoin price
Prediction 1: There is a certain probability that BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2026.
2026 is difficult to predict due to its volatile market, but it is still possible for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in 2026.
Current options market pricing indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 or $130,000 by the end of June 2026 is roughly equal; the probability of reaching $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of 2026 is also similar. This wide range reflects the high degree of uncertainty in the market regarding near-term movements. At the time of writing, the overall crypto market is deeply mired in a bear market, and Bitcoin has failed to firmly regain upward momentum. Until BTC clearly stabilizes in the $100,000-$105,000 range, we believe the near-term risks remain skewed to the downside. Other factors in the broader financial markets also contribute to uncertainty, such as the pace of AI capital expenditure, the monetary policy environment, and the US midterm elections in November.
This year, we have observed a structural decline in long-term Bitcoin volatility levels—partly due to the introduction of larger-scale option coverage/BTC yield strategies. Notably, the BTC volatility smile curve currently shows put option volatility pricing higher than call option volatility, the opposite of what happened six months ago. This suggests that the market is shifting from a skewed pattern typically seen in growth markets to a pricing model closer to that of traditional macro assets.
This maturation trend is likely to continue. Regardless of whether Bitcoin dips near its 200-week moving average, the asset class is maturing and institutional adoption is steadily increasing. 2026 may be a lackluster year for Bitcoin, but whether it closes at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish view (over the longer term) will only strengthen. Increasingly open institutional access, coupled with loose monetary policy and a strong market demand for non-dollar hedging assets, is working in tandem. Bitcoin is likely to follow gold's lead within the next two years, becoming a widely adopted hedge against currency devaluation. —Alex Thorn (Head of Research, Galaxy Research)
2. Layer-1 and Layer-2
Prediction 2: The total market capitalization of the internet capital market on Solana will surge to $2 billion (currently around $750 million).
Solana's on-chain economy is maturing, primarily driven by a shift in market activity from meme-driven to new models and the success of new launch platforms focused on channeling capital into truly profitable businesses. This shift is further reinforced by improvements in Solana's market structure and demand for tokens with fundamental value. As investor preferences shift towards sustainable on-chain businesses rather than short-lived meme cycles, the internet capital markets will become a decisive pillar of Solana's economic activity. —Lucas Tcheyan (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 3: At least one existing, widely used Layer-1 blockchain will integrate revenue-generating applications into its protocol, directly channeling their value back to the native token.
The deepening reassessment of how Layer-1 captures and sustains value is driving public chains toward more biased designs. Hyperliquid's successful integration of a perpetual contract exchange, and the widespread shift in economic value capture from the protocol layer to the application layer (a manifestation of the "fat application theory"), are reshaping expectations of what value a neutral base layer should provide. As applications increasingly retain the majority of the value they create, more public chains are exploring whether certain revenue-generating underlying functionalities should be directly embedded into the protocol to strengthen the token-level economic model. Early signs are already emerging. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin's recent call for the development of low-risk, economically meaningful DeFi to underpin ETH's value highlights the pressure on Layer-1 to prove its sustainable value capture capabilities. MegaEth plans to launch a native stablecoin and return its revenue to validators, while Ambient's upcoming AI-focused Layer-1 aims to internalize inference fees. These examples demonstrate a growing desire among public chains to control key applications and monetize them. This lays the foundation for a crucial step for a major Layer-1 blockchain in 2026: formally integrating a revenue-generating application at the protocol layer and directing its economic value to the native token. —Lucas Tcheyan (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 4: No Solana inflation rate reduction proposal will be passed in 2026, and the current proposal SIMD-0411 will be withdrawn without a vote.
Solana's inflation rate was a focal point of community debate last year. Despite a new inflation reduction proposal (SIMD-0411) put forward in November, consensus remains lacking on the optimal path. Instead, a growing consensus argues that this would distract from more pressing priorities, such as implementing microstructural adjustments to the Solana market. Furthermore, adjusting SOL's inflation policy could impact its future positioning as a neutral store of value and monetary asset. —Lucas Tcheyan (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 5: Enterprise-level L1 will be upgraded from the pilot phase to a real settlement infrastructure.
At least one Fortune 500 bank, cloud service provider, or e-commerce platform will launch a branded enterprise-grade L1 in 2026, settling over $1 billion in real economic activity and running production-grade cross-chain bridges connected to public DeFi.
Early enterprise blockchains were mostly internal experiments or marketing initiatives. The next wave will tend towards dedicated infrastructure layers built for specific verticals, with their validation layers open to regulated issuers and banks, while leveraging public blockchains for liquidity, collateral, and price discovery. This will further highlight the difference between neutral public L1 and vertically integrated enterprise-grade L1—the latter integrating issuance, settlement, and distribution within a single enterprise technology stack. —Christopher Rosa (Research Analyst, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 6: The ratio of app revenue to network revenue will double by 2026.
As transactions, DeFi, wallets, and emerging consumer applications continue to dominate on-chain fee generation, value capture is increasingly shifting away from the infrastructure layer. Simultaneously, the network is structurally reducing value loss through MEVs and driving fee compression at the L1 and L2 levels, thereby shrinking the revenue base of the infrastructure layer. This will accelerate value capture at the application layer, allowing the "fat application theory" to continue to outpace the "fat protocol theory." — Lucas Tcheyan, Research Specialist, Galaxy Research
3. Stablecoins and Asset Tokenization
Prediction 7: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will grant some form of exemption relief for expanding the use of tokenized securities in DeFi, based on its "innovation exemption" program.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will offer some form of exemption relief to facilitate the development of the on-chain tokenized securities market. This could take the form of a so-called "no-action letter" or a new type of "innovation exemption"—a concept repeatedly mentioned by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. This move would allow legitimate, unpackaged on-chain securities to develop in the DeFi market on public blockchains, rather than simply using blockchain technology for back-office capital market activities (as demonstrated by the recent no-action letter from the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation). The initial phase of formal rulemaking will begin in the second half of 2026, aiming to codify rules for brokers, dealers, exchanges, and other traditional market participants using crypto assets or tokenized securities. —Alex Thorn (Head of Research, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 8: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will face lawsuits from traditional market participants or industry organizations over its innovation exemption policy.
Whether it's trading firms, market infrastructure providers, or lobbying groups, some players in traditional finance or banking will challenge regulators—because they have granted exemptions to DeFi applications or crypto companies during the expansion of rules related to tokenized securities, rather than pushing for comprehensive rulemaking. —Alex Thorn (Head of Research, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 9: Stablecoin trading volume will surpass that of the Automated Clearing House (ACH).
Compared to traditional payment methods, stablecoins have consistently maintained a significantly higher velocity of circulation. We have observed a sustained CAGR of 30%-40% in stablecoin supply, with transaction volume climbing in tandem. Stablecoin transaction volume has surpassed major credit card networks like Visa, currently handling approximately half of the transactions processed by the Automated Clearing House (ACH). With the details of the GENIUS Act set to be finalized in early 2026, we are likely to see stablecoin growth accelerate, exceeding its historical average CAGR—the existing stablecoin market will continue to expand, and new players will compete for the ever-growing market share. —Thad Pinakiewicz (Vice President and Researcher, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 10: Stablecoins that partner with traditional financial institutions will see consolidation.
Despite the emergence of numerous US stablecoins in 2025, the market struggles to support a large number of widely adopted options. Consumers and merchants will not use multiple digital dollars simultaneously; they will eventually switch to one or two of the most widely accepted. We have already seen this consolidation trend in the partnerships of mainstream institutions: nine major banks—Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Santander, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, MUFG Bank, TD Bank Group, and UBS—are exploring the issuance of stablecoins denominated in G7 currencies, while PYUSD, launched in partnership with Paxos, combines a global payment network with a regulated issuer. These examples demonstrate that success hinges on scale of distribution: the ability to integrate with banks, payment processors, and enterprise platforms. More stablecoin issuers are expected to collaborate or integrate systems in the future to compete for meaningful market share. —Jianing Wu (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 11: A major bank/brokerage firm will accept tokenized shares as collateral.
Tokenized shares are currently on the fringes, primarily confined to DeFi experiments and pilot programs on private blockchains led by large banks. However, core infrastructure providers in traditional finance are accelerating their migration to blockchain-based systems, and regulators are increasingly expressing support. In the coming year, we are likely to see a major bank or brokerage begin accepting on-chain tokenized shares as deposits and treating them like traditional securities. —Thad Pinakiewicz (Vice President and Researcher, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 12: Bank card networks will be connected to public blockchain channels.
At least one of the world's top three bank card networks will process over 10% of cross-border settlements via public blockchain stablecoins by 2026, although the vast majority of end-users will not directly interact with the encrypted interface. Issuing banks and acquiring institutions will continue to display balances and liabilities in traditional formats, but in the background, a significant portion of net settlements between regional entities will be conducted via tokenized USD to shorten deadlines, reduce pre-deposit requirements, and mitigate correspondent banking risk. This development will make stablecoins a core financial infrastructure of existing payment networks. — Christopher Rosa (Research Analyst, Galaxy Research)
4. DeFi
Prediction 13: By the end of 2026, decentralized exchanges will account for more than 25% of the total spot trading volume.
While centralized exchanges (CEXs) still dominate in terms of new user liquidity and deposit channels, several structural changes are driving increasing spot trading activity onto the blockchain. The two most significant advantages of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are KYC-free access and more cost-effective fee structures, both of which are increasingly attracting users and market makers seeking lower friction and greater composability. Currently, according to various data sources, decentralized exchanges account for approximately 15%-17% of spot trading volume. —Will Owens (Research Analyst, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 14: More than $500 million worth of DAO treasury assets will be fully managed by the prediction market governance mechanism (Futarchy).
Based on our prediction a year ago—that prediction market governance mechanisms would gain wider adoption as a governance model—we believe the mechanism has now demonstrated sufficient practical effectiveness for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to begin using it as the sole decision-making system for capital allocation and strategic direction. Therefore, we expect the size of DAO-owned funds managed through prediction market governance mechanisms to exceed $500 million by the end of 2026. Currently, approximately $47 million of DAO treasury funds are entirely managed by this mechanism. We believe growth will primarily come from newly established prediction market governance DAOs, but the expansion of existing DAO treasury sizes will also play a role. —Zack Pokorny (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 15: The total outstanding amount of cryptocurrency-based loans (based on quarter-end snapshots) will exceed $90 billion.
Building on the growth momentum of 2025, the total outstanding amount of cryptocurrency-staking loans in the DeFi and CeFi sectors will continue to expand in 2026. As institutional participants increasingly rely on DeFi protocols for lending activities, on-chain dominance (i.e., the share of loans originating from decentralized platforms) will continue to rise. —Zack Pokorny (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 16: Stablecoin interest rate volatility will remain moderate, and borrowing costs through DeFi applications will not exceed 10%.
As institutional participation in the on-chain lending market increases, we expect interest rate volatility to decline significantly due to increased liquidity and stronger capital stickiness (lower turnover). Meanwhile, arbitrage between on-chain and off-chain rates continues to become easier, while the barriers to entry into DeFi are rising. With off-chain rates expected to decline in 2026, on-chain lending rates should remain low even in a bull market – off-chain rates will provide key bottom support. The core logic is: (1) institutional capital brings stability and sustainability to the DeFi market; (2) a declining off-chain rate environment will anchor on-chain rates, keeping them below the high levels typically seen during expansion cycles. —Zack Pokorny (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 17: By the end of 2026, the total market capitalization of privacy coins will exceed $100 billion.
Privacy coins gained significant market attention in Q4 2025. As investors kept more funds on-chain, on-chain privacy became a focal point. Among the top three privacy coins, Zcash rose approximately 800% in the quarter, Railgun rose approximately 204%, and Monero achieved a more modest 53% increase. Early Bitcoin developers, including Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of anonymity, explored solutions to make transactions more private or even completely shielded, but practical zero-knowledge technologies were not yet mature or widespread at the time. As more funds remain on-chain, users (especially institutions) began to question whether they were truly willing to make their entire crypto asset balance completely public. Regardless of whether completely shielded designs or coin mixing solutions ultimately prevail, we expect the total market capitalization of privacy coins to grow from CoinMarketCap's current estimate of $63 billion to over $100 billion. — Christopher Rosa (Research Analyst, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 18: Polymarket's weekly trading volume will continue to exceed $1.5 billion in 2026.
Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing categories in the cryptocurrency space, with Polymarket's weekly nominal trading volume approaching $1 billion. We expect this figure to continue to surpass $1.5 billion by 2026, as new capital-efficient tiers deepen liquidity and AI-driven order flows increase trading frequency. Polymarket's continuously optimized distribution channels will also continue to accelerate capital inflows. —Will Owens (Research Analyst, Galaxy Research)
5. Traditional Finance
Prediction 19: The US will launch more than 50 spot Altcoin ETFs, as well as another 50 crypto asset ETFs (excluding spot single-currency products).
Following the SEC's approval of the Common Listing Standard, we expect the pace of spot Altcoin ETF listings to accelerate in 2026. In 2025, we already saw over 15 spot ETFs launched based on Solana, XRP, Hedera, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Chainlink. We anticipate that the remaining major assets we've identified will follow suit with their own spot ETF applications. In addition to single-asset products, we also expect multi-asset crypto ETFs and leveraged crypto ETFs to launch. With over 100 applications currently in the queue, we anticipate a continued influx of new products in 2026. —Jianing Wu (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Forecast 20: Net inflows into US spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion.
Net inflows reached $23 billion in 2025, and we expect this figure to accelerate in 2026 as institutional adoption deepens. With large integrated brokerages lifting restrictions on investment advisors recommending such products, and large platforms that were previously hesitant (such as Vanguard) beginning to include crypto funds, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs alone should see inflows exceeding 2025 levels as they enter more investor portfolios. Furthermore, the launch of numerous new crypto ETFs, especially spot Altcoin products, will release pent-up demand and drive incremental inflows, particularly in the early stages of distribution. —Jianing Wu (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 21: A major asset allocation platform will include Bitcoin in its standard model portfolio.
With three of the Big Four brokerages (Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America) lifting restrictions on investment advisors recommending Bitcoin to clients and acknowledging a 1%-4% allocation, the next step is to include Bitcoin products on their recommendation lists and in formal research coverage. This will significantly enhance their clients' awareness of Bitcoin. The final step is inclusion in model portfolios, which typically requires higher assets under management (AUM) and sustained liquidity, but we expect Bitcoin funds to cross these thresholds and enter model portfolios with a strategic weighting of 1%-2%. —Jianing Wu (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 22: More than 15 crypto companies will go public in the U.S. through initial public offerings (IPOs) or upgrade listings.
By 2025, 10 crypto-related companies (including Galaxy) had successfully completed IPOs or upgrades in the US. Since 2018, over 290 crypto and blockchain companies have completed private funding rounds exceeding $50 million, and we believe a significant portion of these companies are now poised to seek listings in the US to gain access to the US capital markets, especially given the increasingly lenient regulatory environment. Among the most likely candidates, we anticipate CoinShares (if completed by the end of 2025), BitGo (already filed), Chainalysis, and FalconX to proceed with their IPOs or upgrades in 2026. —Jianing Wu (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 23: Five or more digital asset treasury companies (DATs) will be forced to sell assets, be acquired, or shut down completely.
In the second quarter of 2025, we witnessed a surge in the creation of DATs. Starting in October, their market capitalization-to-book ratios began to compress. As of this writing, the average trading price-to-book ratio for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana DATs is below 1. After the initial frenzy of companies across industries transitioning to DATs to capitalize on market conditions, the next phase will differentiate DATs with sustainable competitive advantages from those lacking a clear strategy or asset management capabilities. To succeed in 2026, DATs will need a sound capital structure, innovative liquidity management and yield generation methods, and close synergy with relevant protocols (if such a relationship has not yet been established). Economies of scale (such as Strategy's large Bitcoin holdings) or jurisdictional positioning (such as Metaplanet in Japan) may provide additional advantages. However, many DATs that rushed into the market during the initial hype lack substantial strategic planning. These DATs will struggle to maintain their price-to-book ratios and may therefore be forced to liquidate assets, be acquired by larger players, or, in the worst-case scenario, shut down entirely. —Jianing Wu (Research Specialist at Galaxy Research)
6. Policy
Prediction 24: Some Democrats will bring up "debanking" as an issue—and may see cryptocurrency as a solution.
This prediction is unlikely to come true, but consider the following context: In late November, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) urged financial institutions to "remain vigilant in monitoring, identifying, and reporting suspicious cross-border money transfers involving undocumented immigrants." While FinCEN's alert highlighted risks such as human trafficking and drug smuggling, it also noted that the responsibility of money service businesses (MSBs) to file Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) "includes cross-border money transfers stemming from undocumented employment." This could involve remittances from undocumented plumbers, farmhands, or waiters—immigrant groups whose employment practices violate federal law but garner sympathy from left-wing voters. Prior to this alert, FinCEN had issued a Geolocation Order (GTO) earlier this year requiring MSBs to automatically report cash transactions as low as $1,000 in designated border counties (far below the legally mandated $10,000 threshold for money transaction reporting). These measures broaden the scope of everyday financial activities that could trigger federal reporting, increasing the likelihood that immigrants and low-wage workers will face frozen funds, payment denials, or other forms of financial exclusion. Therefore, this could resonate more with some pro-immigration Democrats on the issue of "debanking" (a focus primarily on the right in recent years) and make them more open to permissionless, censorship-resistant financial networks. Conversely, for the same reasons, populist, pro-bank, and law-order-conscious Republicans may begin to take a negative stance towards cryptocurrencies—despite strong support from the Trump administration and reformists within the Republican Party. The continued push by federal banking regulators to modernize the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering compliance requirements will only further highlight the inherent contradiction between the two major policy goals of financial inclusion and crime reduction—contradictions that will be prioritized differently by different political factions. If this political reshuffling becomes a reality, it will demonstrate that blockchain does not have a fixed political base. Its permissionless design means that acceptance or opposition is not based on ideology, but rather on how it influences the political priorities of different groups at different times. —Marc Hochstein (Vice President and Editor, Galaxy Research)
Prediction 25: A federal investigation will be launched into insider trading or match-fixing in prediction markets.
With US regulators giving the green light to on-chain prediction markets, trading volume and open interest have surged. Simultaneously, several scandals involving alleged insider trading and federal raids targeting match-fixing rings in major sports leagues have emerged. Because traders can participate anonymously rather than through KYC-verified betting platforms, insiders now face a greater temptation to abuse privileged information or manipulate the market. Therefore, we are more likely to see investigations triggered by unusual price fluctuations in on-chain prediction markets than traditional surveillance of regulated sports betting platforms. —Thad Pinakiewicz (Vice President, Researcher, Galaxy Research)
7. AI
Prediction 26: Payments using the x402 standard will account for 30% of daily transactions on the Base chain and 5% of non-voting transactions on the Solana chain in 2026, marking a wider use of on-chain channels in agent interactions.
The enhancement of agent capabilities, the continued adoption of stablecoins, and improvements in developer tools will open the door for x402 and other agent-driven payment standards to drive a larger share of on-chain activity. As AI agents increasingly transact autonomously across different services, standardized payment primitives will become a core component of the execution layer. Base and Solana have emerged as leading public chains in this vertical—Base benefiting from Coinbase's role in creating and promoting the x402 standard, and Solana leveraging its large developer community and user base. Furthermore, with the growth of agent-driven commercial activity, we expect emerging public chains focused on payments, such as Tempo and Arc, to also experience rapid growth. —Lucas Tcheyan (Research Specialist, Galaxy Research)
