To be honest, the market situation these past two days has become so predictable that we no longer need to deceive ourselves.
Bitcoin was dragged down by the US stock market last night, hitting a low of around $85,000 . The $90,000 level, which it had defended for many days, was finally broken , and it's currently hovering around $86,000. Most critically, there are no decent support signals on the 4-hour chart ; it's clearly a weak structure.
This week is destined to be turbulent. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report, Japan's interest rate hike on the 19th—almost all the major events this week are happening at once, making significant volatility highly probable . The panic will only gradually subside after this week, and a truly substantial rebound, in my opinion, will likely occur after January .
So now there's only one thing to do: reduce leverage, reduce risk, and survive . Yesterday's drop was enough to call it a temporary bear market. The fact that the December interest rate cut, expectations of balance sheet reduction, and the Ethereum upgrade all failed to revive the market speaks volumes. The monetary easing doesn't flow directly into the crypto; the funds usually have to circulate in other financial markets first, taking anywhere from two to three months.
The structure of Ethereum hasn't completely broken down yet. The price is still trading between two long-term downtrend lines. Although there was a large bearish candle with high volume this morning, the key levels haven't been broken , so it can only be considered a pullback, not a collapse. However, there are no signs of a bottom on the daily chart either. It can only be said that there is resistance above and support below, so it's still a period of waiting.
Many people don't understand: the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates, so why is Japan raising them? Simply put, this isn't something Japan wants to do; it's a passive choice driven by global capital competition. If Japan raises interest rates, the money that flowed into global risk assets at low or even near-zero interest rates over the past few years will likely withdraw en masse . This is a real negative for all risk assets.
More importantly, the US will enter the Christmas holiday season after this week. Policy maneuvering, institutional portfolio adjustments, and major market decisions are likely to occur this week . Even the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman may either be decided this week or postponed until early 2026.
So this week, it's not just governments and institutions making choices; retail investors also need to make decisions . Optimize your positions, cut your losses on shit coin, and stop clinging to illusions about altcoins with clearly low liquidity. Everyone is indeed dissatisfied with this bull market, especially those heavily invested in altcoins, but the market doesn't follow emotions; investing is all about winning or losing. If I'm destined to take a loss, I'd rather do it all in 2025 , ideally this week, to lighten my load and prepare for 2026.
Regarding the weekend's decline, the reasons are quite clear: First, US stock market sentiment collapsed on Friday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 wiping out a week's gains in a single day. The two core sectors, chips and AI, collectively retreated, with even large-cap stocks like Broadcom and Oracle experiencing sharp drops. This sentiment naturally spilled over into the crypto. Second, there was a liquidity vacuum . Major players were on break over the weekend, resulting in already low market depth. Currently, buying is mainly driven by ETFs and DAT, both of which have been extremely weak recently. Conversely, OG and miners could dump their holdings at any time, leading to a continuous, albeit slow, decline.
The situation is even worse for altcoins, where almost everyone is affected equally . A large number of coins have hit all-time lows, and newly listed projects are also declining from the opening bell. Even if the overall market rebounds, these coins will most likely never recover.
Currently, the only projects that can still buck the trend and show strength are those controlled by large investors . These coins don't rely on fundamentals; they only depend on the manipulation of these large investors, but the risk is extremely high. The collapse of previous speculative coins was essentially due to a broken funding chain. Once they were blocked by regulators or exchanges, their upward spiral immediately turned into a free fall. Therefore, when trading these coins, never be greedy or hold them for too long .
To be blunt: a bear market is really not suitable for frequent cryptocurrency trading . The harder you try to trade, the faster you might lose money. At this stage, it's better to lower your expectations, act less, observe more, and learn more. When the market doesn't offer opportunities, simply surviving and waiting is the best solution.
This year will likely remain the same, but in the long run, the cryptocurrency market is still one of the few sectors where ordinary people can still "overtake" others. However, there's only one prerequisite— you have to survive to the next round .
The opportunity will be gone in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay your best chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Follow Sister Miao and get through the bear market safely!
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