BTC Price Prediction: An Upward Path Amidst a Mix of Technical and Fundamental Factors

• Technical indicators suggest a short-term correction, but the lower Bollinger Band provides key support.
• Increased institutional participation and reduced supply create fundamental positive factors.
• Macroeconomic environment and regulatory developments will determine the long-term upside potential.

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis

According to Robert, a financial analyst at BTCC, the current BTC price of 101,093.72 USDT is below the 20-day moving average of 109,369.99, indicating short-term weakness. The MACD indicator is negative at -1,074.96, suggesting weak momentum. However, the price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 103,518.17, which may provide technical support. If this key level holds, a rebound towards the middle Bollinger Band at 109,369.99 is possible.

Market sentiment and fundamental drivers

BTCC financial analyst Robert points out that several positive factors are converging: the release of liquidity by the US Treasury may drive up cryptocurrency prices, Bitcoin exchange balances hitting record lows indicate tight supply, and the Coinbase CEO publicly supports the view that Bitcoin is superior to gold. While the neutral stance of Bitcoin Core developers on inscriptions has sparked discussion, Cathie Wood's prediction that Bitcoin will grow 15 times within five years has injected a strong boost into the market.

Factors affecting the price of BTC

Is implicit quantitative easing on the horizon? The US Treasury's liquidity injection may drive up cryptocurrency prices.

The liquidity that the U.S. Treasury is about to release—known as "implicit quantitative easing"—could be a catalyst for a rise in risk assets by the end of the year. The more than $700 billion lost during the government shutdown has created a market environment equivalent to multiple interest rate hikes, with SOFR and repo rates soaring to dangerous levels.

When the Treasury's general account balance returns to normal, the resulting liquidity injection could have a disproportionately positive impact on Bitcoin and Altcoin. Market mechanisms are currently showing extreme funding pressures, with record-high usage of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase facilities—a classic precursor to a shift in risk appetite.

This wave of fiscal liquidity comes as the cryptocurrency market consolidates near key support levels. Historical patterns suggest that such fiscal policy shifts often trigger 6-8 week rallies in speculative assets, with Bitcoin typically leading the charge.

Coinbase CEO advocates that Bitcoin is superior to gold

According to a Cointelegraph report, Coinbase CEO Brian Arms TRON g positioned Bitcoin as a more effective form of currency than gold. This statement reinforces institutional confidence in Bitcoin's utility as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

Armst Ron 's comments reflect a broad trend of cryptocurrency adoption by traditional financial institutions, with Bitcoin increasingly seen as a safe-haven asset against inflation and macroeconomic instability. Compared to gold, which has long been considered a safe-haven asset, this underscores Bitcoin's potential to redefine global finance.

Cboe launches Bitcoin ETF Options Index to enter the digital asset market.

Cboe Global Markets has launched its first set of options indices linked to the spot Bitcoin ETF, a strategic move aimed at combining traditional derivatives strategies with digital assets. The Chicago exchange launched the BXGBTCA and BXGBTCT indices on June 9, tracking the Grayscale GBTC ETF and a 20% covert call option strategy, respectively.

These synthetic products enable investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through GBTC options contracts without directly holding the cryptocurrency. This reflects the growing demand from institutional investors for sophisticated crypto risk management tools that combine liquidity from traditional options markets with Bitcoin price movements .

Bitcoin Volatility Arrives: Key Market Developments This Week

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for potential volatility, with macroeconomic indicators in focus. Last week's weak Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data showed contraction in both manufacturing and services, while the Trump-Musk dispute briefly triggered fluctuations.

The market is now focused on the May Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) report, a key inflation indicator that could influence Federal Reserve policy. Persistent price pressures are expected, reinforcing the narrative of stagflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Thursday, will provide early signals of downstream consumer inflation.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a measure of mainstream consumer sentiment amid persistent price pressures, will be released on Friday. Meanwhile, US-China trade negotiations are set to resume on Monday – an unknown factor for risk assets. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets remains high, despite increasing institutional adoption.

Avalon Labs destroyed 44% of the circulating AVL supply.

Avalon Labs has conducted a large-scale token burn, destroying a total of 80 million AVL tokens, approximately 44% of its circulating supply. These burned tokens primarily came from unclaimed allocations of a $20 million AVL airdrop in early 2024.

This Bitcoin-focused financial services platform recently secured strategic funding led by YZi LABs . This reduction in supply follows a typical deflationary protocol in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and could put upward pressure on the price of the remaining tokens.

Bitcoin exchange balance hits record low, with 65,000 BTC withdrawn from platforms.

Last week saw a significant outflow of Bitcoin from cryptocurrency exchanges , with a total outflow of 65,393 BTC across major trading platforms. Binance, Coinbase Pro, and Bitfinex led the outflows, decreasing by 8,765, 9,324, and 25,711 BTC respectively.

The total Bitcoin balance on exchanges is currently 2,092,731 BTC , a record low. This indicates that long-term holders are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin amid bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows diverge: BlackRock's IBIT outperforms Fidelity's FBTC

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $129 million last week, with Fidelity F BTC leading the decline with an outflow of $168 million. BlackRock's IBIT bucked the trend, attracting $81 million, bringing its historical net inflow total to $48.65 billion.

VanEck's HODL ETF saw a slight increase, recording a weekly inflow of $19.66 million. The overall ETF market now holds $125.58 billion in assets, representing 6.05% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. Cumulative net inflows across all products reached $44.24 billion.

Cathie Wood predicts Bitcoin will grow 15 times within five years.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood predicts that Bitcoin's price will increase fifteenfold over the next five years, noting that it is evolving into a global monetary system. Wood stated, "BTC represents a unique global monetary system," emphasizing that its volatility is decreasing as institutional adoption increases.

This optimistic forecast aligns with the maturing dynamics of the Bitcoin market, where increased holder participation reduces price volatility. Wood 's track record in disruptive innovation lends weight to its prediction, despite the inherently speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market.

The Bitcoin Core developers' stance of non-intervention regarding inscriptions has sparked heated debate within the community.

Bitcoin Core developers have officially announced a non-interventionist approach to on-chain activities such as inscriptions and ordinal numbers, sparking heated debate within the cryptocurrency community. The statement, signed by 31 core contributors on June 6, emphasizes the need to maintain Bitcoin's neutrality, even for controversial non-financial uses.

This policy clarification comes amid growing tensions between purists (who believe inscription contradicts Bitcoin's original intent) and libertarians (who advocate for uncensored innovation). Developers emphasize that node operators ultimately retain control over transaction filtering, stating, "The ability to freely run any software is Bitcoin's most fundamental guarantee against coercion."

Market observers point out that this decision effectively gives the green light to continue experimenting with Bitcoin's block space, despite critics' warnings that it could lead to network congestion. This move reflects Bitcoin's evolving dual identity as a monetary asset and a permissionless protocol.

Bitcoin price breaks $105,000: Is a full-blown rebound on the horizon?

Bitcoin has broken through the $105,000 mark, suggesting a potential resurgence of bullish momentum. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above this key level and its 100-hour simple moving average, and a bullish trendline has formed on the BTC/USD hourly chart at $105,350. A break above the $106,500 resistance level could pave the way for further gains towards $107,600.

The earlier drop caused BTC to test the $100,000 support zone, before buyers intervened, pushing the price back above $103,500. The current consolidation phase suggests traders are weighing their next move. However, failure to hold $104,000 could reignite bearish pressure.

How high can the price of BTC rise?

According to a comprehensive analysis by Robert, a financial analyst at BTCC, after a short-term technical correction, BTC is expected to establish a solid foundation around $100,000. Considering current market sentiment and fundamental factors, BTC is expected to gradually recover the $110,000 level and challenge the $120,000 resistance level in the coming months. Key data is as follows:

We need to closely monitor the developments in US fiscal policy and institutional fund inflows, as these will be key catalysts for pushing prices above previous highs.