The interest rate was cut by 25 basis points in the early hours of the morning, which was in line with expectations. So why did the rate fall instead of rise?
Reasons: Powell's ambiguous remarks, the balance sheet reduction only ceasing in December, and the US government not yet returning to normal operations—these are all short-term sentiment-driven factors. But don't be alarmed; interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are both long-term positives, it's just that major players like to use this opportunity to shake out weak hands.
Let's take a look at the market's technical aspects:
$BTC: From the overall trend, there are no signs of a major drop; looking at the daily chart, the downward wick pattern is obvious. Pay attention to the 1105 area. If it can close above the 112-116 range today, it can confirm that the rebound from the wick has stabilized. Tomorrow's monthly closing price will be key. If it stays above 112, the market is still in the hands of the bulls.
$ETH: It's the same old story. Last time, it hovered between 2300 and 2700 for 60 days and was called a top, but then it surged to 3800. Now it's been hovering between 3800 and 4900 for 78 days, and again a bunch of people are shouting that a bear market is coming. The fluctuation ranges are about the same, so why panic? Especially since on-chain data is also confirming it: retail investors are panic selling, while large investors are quietly buying.
For the second coin, the short-term resistance level is 4030, with the subsequent target being the 4400-4600 range. A break above 4600 could open up new upside potential.
External news is also piling up: a high probability of another interest rate cut in December, the end of balance sheet reduction, Q4 upgrades, tariff cancellation, and ETF launches imminent. Market sentiment remains low, making a market top less likely at this point.
As for OpenAI's claim of a $1 trillion valuation and IPO plans, such news is more of a mood-blowing agent and shouldn't be taken too seriously. The real market movement is brewing within the crypto.
Don't be too greedy now. The short-term rebound is almost over, long it difficult to short long or short. Maintain a steady pace; small trades are fine, but big bets are not. Opportunities are fleeting, so get together, everyone!
Don't let hesitation delay your chance to make money, and don't get burned by worthless cryptocurrencies. Join Sister Miao and let's ride this bull market together!
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