Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that Bitcoin (BTC) may not fall below $100,000 again if positive developments in global markets continue.
Kendrick noted in a note that progress in US-China trade talks has turned last week's market fear into hope. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement over the weekend indicated that restrictions on China's rare earth exports would be postponed for a year, and Beijing is expected to purchase large quantities of US soybeans in the coming years.
This agreement is expected to be formalized following the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea on Thursday.
These easing tensions have boosted optimism in risk markets, with the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio rising above pre-October 10 levels. This ratio measures Bitcoin's market value relative to gold, and a rise in Bitcoin's favor generally signals a rise in risk appetite.
“If this ratio rises above 30 again, it would signal the end of the period of fear in the markets,” Kendrick said.
The Standard Chartered analyst argued that further confirmation of Bitcoin's strength would be new inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick, noting that $2 billion had flowed out of US gold ETFs between Wednesday and Friday last week, said, “If even half of that money returns to Bitcoin ETFs this week, that would be a strong positive signal.”
According to Kendrick, Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high would be the “ultimate confirmation”:
“If this happens, it would be the beginning of the end for those who believe Bitcoin peaked due to the halving cycle. I believe the halving cycle is no longer important, and ETF inflows are much more decisive.”
The analyst also noted that a new 25 basis point interest rate cut is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, which would be positive for Bitcoin.
Additionally, this week, the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon, as well as crypto companies such as Coinbase and Strategy, are expected to release their financial results.
Kendrick concluded his assessment with this bold statement:
“If this week goes well, Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again.”
*This is not investment advice.
