Two popular metrics used to gauge investor demand in the U.S. and Asia — Coinbase Premium and Kimchi Premium — have surged recently, while broader market sentiment remains dominated by panic and sharp sell-offs.
What does this mean and what scenarios might it suggest for the future? Here is a detailed analysis based on historical data and expert commentary.
Two high-profile indexes hit record highs
Coinbase Premium measures the percentage difference between the price on Coinbase Pro (USD pairs) and the price on Binance ( USDT pairs). A high premium indicates strong buying pressure from US investors on Coinbase.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the index rose to 0.18 on October 10, its highest level since March 2024. It has since dropped to 0.09, still its highest level since June.
Coinbase Premium Index. Source:CryptoQuant .Analysts note that despite the “Black Friday” panic sell-off , Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium hit a 19-month high during the crash, indicating massive accumulation from institutions.
“This is a classic example of large-scale institutional buying on the dip. While the global market was selling off, these large entities took advantage of the panic and liquidation to accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices,” said analyst CryptoOnchain.
CryptoOnchain added that the strong accumulation around $110,000 shows the formation of a solid support zone. These institutions will likely continue to place buy orders if the price falls .
If Coinbase Premium represents buying pressure from US institutions, Kimchi Premium (also known as Korea Premium) reflects retail investor sentiment in South Korea.
This index measures the price difference between Korean exchanges and global exchanges. A high premium means that Korean retail investors are showing strong buying interest.
Data from CryptoQuant also shows that the index has climbed to its highest level since February 2025.
Bitcoin Korea Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant .“Korea’s Kimchi Premium is exploding. Bitcoin on Bithumb is trading 7.47% higher than on Binance. It’s crazy,” said Brian HoonJong Paik, Co-founder and CEO of SmashFi.
Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index flipped from greed to fear abruptly in the second week of October, this wave of fear appears to have created an opportunity for some investors to build stronger positions.
Is this time different?
While the bullish arguments seem reasonable, past patterns suggest a potential warning sign for the market .
Zooming in and smoothing both indicators using a 30-day simple moving Medium (SMA30) shows a clear pattern.
Historically, when Coinbase Premium and Korea Premium both spike, the market tends to fall shortly after — as seen in March 2024 and February 2025.
This model also shows how long it might take for the market to recover. In the previous two cases, after both indexes spiked, the market took three to six months to recover.
Some analysts believe the market will stabilize, while others are skeptical , suggesting that new investors may be hesitant after witnessing recent volatility.
Regardless, the path to recovery will depend largely on the next moves by the world's major economic leaders,developments that investors are closely watching.
