Whale Indicators Show New Price Direction for Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is up 2.5% in the past 24 hours, trading near $115,700, but still lags behind Ethereum and other coins that have hit new highs.

Despite being nearly 7% below its peak, several key technical and on chain signals suggest a breakout is forming, similar to the rally seen earlier this month.

Selling pressure from whales is waning

For weeks, Bitcoin's price has lagged behind as whales move Capital into other assets, leaving retail investors to drive much of the move.

That makes it important to XEM whether whales are slowing their selling. The Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of the 10 largest inflows to all exchange inflows, provides that signal.

The ratio fell from 0.54 on August 19, 2025 to 0.43 on August 22, 2025, its lowest point in nearly two weeks. A similar drop occurred on August 10, 2025, when the ratio fell to 0.42. That move led to a sharp rally in Bitcoin from $119,305 to $124,000 — a gain of about 3.9%.

If history repeats itself, the current structure could open the door for a similar rally, possibly towards a new all-time high.

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HODL Waves indicate accumulation

With BTC selling pressure easing, the next question is whether medium- and long-term investors are accumulating. The HODL Waves index tracks the percentage of Bitcoin supply held across age groups.

Over the past month, major groups have expanded their positions:

• 1y–2y wallet increased from 10.31% to 10.57%
• Wallet 3m–6m increased from 6.40% to 7.19%
• Wallet 1m–3m increased from 6.99% to 8.93%

This widespread accumulation during a volatile period shows that confidence remains. Combined with the reduced whale inflows into exchanges, this structure points to a market preparing for a Bitcoin price breakout.

Bitcoin Price Levels Determine the Breakout Path

The technical picture ties these signals together. Bitcoin is currently trading just above strong support at $115,400. A key resistance lies at $117,600, with $119,700 Vai as a key breakout trigger for Bitcoin to move towards and even surpass All-Time-High.

On the other hand, if the price drops below $114,100, and especially $111,900, it will shift the momentum to a bearish trend in the short term.

If the exchange whale rate repeats the pattern from August 10, Bitcoin could rally nearly 4% from current levels. That would push the price past $119,000, directly into breakout territory.

From there, the stage would be set for a retest of the All-Time-High, confirming the idea that this rally has only been delayed, not rejected.