Last night to today, BTC went through a "door pattern":
It peaked at 117K, but then dropped back below 115K this morning, with short-term upward momentum completely gone, and the market returning to a consolidation range. ETH was even less impressive, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate falling from 0.0386 to 0.036, and the price dropping directly from 4788 to 4200, essentially erasing last week's rebound.
Powell's Single Sentence, a Market Watershed Moment
Everyone has been focusing on Thursday's Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. A September rate cut was originally a market consensus, but with inflation being so stubborn, CME's rate cut expectations are cooling down:
- Probability of maintaining current rates increased to 16.4%;
- Probability of a 25BP rate cut dropped to 83.6%.
Completely different from last week's dovish atmosphere, this directly dragged down US stocks and the crypto market. Gold remained stable at $3,375, with everyone waiting for the Federal Reserve's new signal. If it leans hawkish, the pullback pressure will be even greater. Additionally, an "unexpected plot" emerged geopolitically: Putin and Zelensky met, simultaneously releasing assurances about Ukraine's security, which the market interpreted as a "peace expectation", causing oil prices to drop 1%. For crypto, if tensions cool down, it could be positive; but if negotiations fall apart, market sentiment could quickly turn negative.
ETH: Hidden Bullish Signals Behind Continuous Decline?
ETH rose 29% last week, almost touching the historical high of 4865, but today dropped back below 4200, returning to mid-August levels. Institutional inflows and Pectra upgrade haven't changed its long-term logic, with potential targets possibly reaching 8000, but short-term pressure is significant.
From a funding perspective:
- Last week, overall crypto ETF inflows were $3.75 billion, with ETH accounting for 77%;
- However, on August 18th, there was a net fund outflow, with ETH ETF at -$197 million and BTC ETF at -$122 million.
This indicates short-term funding caution. Meanwhile, ETH staking unlocks hit a near-monthly high, possibly due to institutional ETF shifts or staged profit-taking.
Article Recommendation: [Link]
However, Lido and other liquid staking pools continue to expand, with staking proportion stable at 27%. I believe this pullback is more of a short-term disturbance, and if the annual meeting tone is dovish, ETH is likely to quickly regain its strength. Another data point suggests Ethereum's potential recovery: on-chain data shows the same signal as before the previous rally, which previously preceded a 33% ETH increase.
Contact+V: c13298103401Today's Altcoin performance was polarized:
- Leading gainers: WEMIX rose nearly 12%, Onyxcoin and Bio Protocol also rose over 10%, benefiting from Korean market, DeFi, and on-chain funds. #OKB and #POL also performed well.
- Leading losers: Pump.fun, Helium, and Ethena dropped 5%-10%, XRP fell below $3, with AKT, THETA, and ICP being the biggest losers.
Overall, Altcoins are still speculation-driven: rising quickly, falling even faster. Mainstream coins are still the ones that can withstand long-term. Sectors to watch in Altcoins:
- DeFi, Layer2: Potential for continued rise after unlocking pressure;
- AI Concept: Short-term sharp decline, but strong rebound potential;
- RWA & Stablecoins: Potential for independent performance under policy benefits;
- MEME: Pump.fun might have another wave if liquidity recovers.
Summary: This pullback is a breather, don't panic. Focus on on-chain fundamentals and strong sectors, and be ready for a potential rebound when the market turns dovish.
Recommended articles: [Links]
That's all for today's article! If you're still uncertain in the crypto market, why not join me in strategic planning?
📬V：c13298103401💬Q：3806326575
