Bitcoin Growth Model Predicts $200,000 by 2025, Reaching $1.5 Million by 2035, Far Surpassing Gold and Nasdaq in Long-Term Profitability
A recent Bitcoin Intelligence Report shows that Bitcoin's (BTC) long-term growth rate remains exceptionally high, outperforming major assets like gold and Nasdaq, even as the market enters a more mature phase.
According to the report, Bitcoin's long-term Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) reaches 42.5%, far exceeding Nasdaq and gold. Although expected to decrease to 30% by 2030, BTC is still anticipated to maintain its leading performance. Power models and percentile analyses set price targets of $150,000 - $200,000 for Q4 2025, with prospects of reaching $1.2 - $1.5 million by 2035.
Compared to traditional assets, Nasdaq's 10-year CAGR typically ranges in the high single digits to just over 10%, with the most recent decade reaching 16%. Meanwhile, gold recorded an average 10.65% CAGR over the past 10 years, increasing to 12.88% when adjusted for annual supply growth of around 2%.
The report emphasizes that with this outstanding growth rate, Bitcoin is not just a digital asset but also a highly potential long-term investment channel, capable of generating returns multiple times higher than traditional channels if the current trend continues.
During the same period, the US M2 money supply expanded by only about 6% annually, showing modest growth compared to Bitcoin's outstanding performance. With a modeled CAGR of 42.5%, BTC is far ahead of most traditional assets. The report states that the company's power model, which has tracked Bitcoin with "unprecedented accuracy" over 16 years, predicts growth rates will gradually slow as acceptance reaches an average of around 30% by 2030, but this figure is still three times the adjusted supply growth rate of gold.
"Bitcoin remains the most accurate indicator of global liquidation," the report emphasizes, referring to its small market size and role as a "liquidation bubble" in the context of an expanding monetary structure. Additionally, the price range of $114,000 - $117,000 has been verified as a solid accumulation zone, paving the way for a strong recovery pushing BTC to $122,000.
$200,000 Target for Bitcoin by Q4 Remains Feasible
With the immediate resistance level just above $130,000, Bitcoin's year-end 2025 prospects still aim at $200,000. This forecast is built by combining power models and percentile analysis, aiming to most accurately reflect BTC's historical growth trajectory.
According to the model, Bitcoin's base price by the end of 2025 will be around $120,000. However, considering the peak growth phase of the cycle, the price could easily climb to the $150,000 - $200,000 range. Looking further ahead, by 2035, the model predicts Bitcoin could reach $1.2 - $1.5 million, based on a network-like exponential growth rate, rather than relying solely on speculative hot surges.
Historical charts show that each time Bitcoin's age increases by 50%, the price typically records about a 10-fold growth, a pattern tracked with very high accuracy (R² > 0.95). This trend is not only reinforced by historical data but also supported by stable on-chain strength and favorable macroeconomic conditions, including expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts. All these factors suggest that Bitcoin's most explosive phase in 2025 may still lie ahead.
Bitwise's Investment Director, Matthew Hougan, also offers a similar perspective, noting that Bitcoin's supply-demand balance is increasingly tilting towards demand, with miners extracting fewer BTCs than the volume bought by public trading companies and ETF funds. He shared in May: "I believe this will ultimately deplete selling pressure in the $100,000 range - where we've been held back, and when that happens, the next level Bitcoin will target is $200,000."
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
