QCP: The Fed's September rate cut expectations are driving Ethereum's momentum, and the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will be the next focus

Mars Finance News: On August 13, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that the US July CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8%; core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 3.0%. The relatively moderate overall inflation reading strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle in September, with most market participants anticipating a 25 basis point reduction. Commodity inflation, previously expected to rise due to businesses passing higher costs to consumers, performed lower than expected this time. After the data release, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 remained unchanged, with pricing still reflecting approximately 60 basis points of potential cuts. Despite a softening labor market and market expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair in 2026, the terminal rate remains stable. Futures positions indicate that investors believe the Federal Reserve's rate floor in 2026 will be around 3%. With several key risk events resolved, US stocks continued to rise and reached new historical highs. In terms of tariff confrontation, "TACO" remains a core reference for traders, with the tariff deadline between the US and China extended by 90 days. The Russo-Ukrainian geopolitical situation has eased, with escalation risks seen as remote, and a ceasefire or peace agreement has become the market's baseline scenario. In the cryptocurrency market, long-term ETH holders finally experience euphoria, with ETH price approaching historical highs. Bitmine's financing for establishing an ETH vault has attracted attention, with the market noting that any capital inflow to ETH has a more significant impact compared to Bitcoin, as ETH has a smaller market cap and slightly thin liquidity. As long as funds continue to flow into ETH DAT (Decentralized Asset Token), the current ETH upward momentum is expected to continue. Looking ahead, the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will be the next focus. Federal Reserve officials are expected to signal a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Before the September FOMC meeting, only one CPI and one non-farm employment data release remain, and these are not expected to substantially change the Federal Reserve's decision.