Option Flow: Big Roll, Bigger Target

In this week’s edition of Option Flows, Tony Stewart is commenting on the recent market movements.

Not often I focus on ETH, but this is where the action is.

Lock in:

Readers may recall Dec 3.2+3.5-6k Call spreads being bought mid-May at ETH 2500.

This guy returned, rolled 3.2+3.5k Calls to the 4k Strike, and with $16m premium spent it on Dec 4k-6k, and 5k-7k Call spreads.

This is the historical picture from active positioning since mid-May when an entity spent $12m on the Dec 3.2-6k and Dec 3.5-6k Call spreads, with:

ETH Spot 2500.

ETH rallied, but then pulled back to 2300.

ETH bears mocked. The entity held strong.

ETH 4k+ Now who’s laughing?

Yesterday, the entity TPd $16m by rolling the 3.2+3.5k Calls up to the 4k Strike x50k.

Then with that $16m bought the Dec 4k-6k Call spread x17k ($8m), and the Dec 5k-7k Call spread x35k ($8m), all ETH ~3900.

Oct 4-5k Call spread was bought x14k ($4.5m); unclear if same buyer.

There was some Vega on this, so the move higher in Spot didn’t just trigger a firming in Gamma, but the whole curve moved – admittedly in an orderly fashion.

ETH Dvol is now literally 2x BTC Dvol: 69 vs 34.5.

The orderly nature of the Dec 4k+5k Calls being bought in size (as part of the spreads) is partially due to the maturity ofc – the short legs mitigate somewhat – but also due to dealer positioning, which in Vega terms after the trade appears quite unremarkable.

MMs have also been acting cautious on ETH Gamma risk, with the collective positioning subdued. Fast money trades are well balanced with buying and selling of Gamma allowing dealers to risk-manage easily. No signs of the ETH surge from a collective Gamma squeeze. Tco buys only.

Compare this to dealer positioning on BTC.

Saturation of Gamma+Theta around Spot levels.

MMs would benefit massively from an ETH-like move in Spot higher imminently: 50% of the Gamma is wknd dated.

But the change in MSTR dynamics may have halted the momentum for the moment.

BTC flows have been reasonable for August, but much continues to be Vol selling strategies.

The top trade by outright volume was in the Aug15th 118k Calls, both buying and selling on the block side, but almost net zero at around the same spot level; offers little excitement.

BTC Gamma Vol and Vega Vol have been drifting one-way. Using the BTC spot-vol correlation chart, we can see the blue (today) is far lower than the orange (only 30days ago) for Dvol (1month proxy).

Given the focus on BTC with the mass insto + ETF flows, and the OG BTC 80k selling, this seems pretty harsh to stalwart long BTC vol players.

But now, ETH has a vocal leader, and flows and attention have actively switched.

See original post on X here.

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