As we enter August, everyone is still afraid of the "traditional market decline month" effect. However, Trump's intervention to rescue the market has led to a cryptocurrency market recovery, and the US stock index also reached a new high last week. Due to the previous week's non-farm data issues, the market generally expects a rate cut in September. Under this atmosphere, the market is likely to continue the optimistic sentiment from last week, and if there are no major negative factors, the upward trend is expected to continue before September.
VX: TZ7971
The CPI published on Tuesday, while a September rate cut is almost certain, can determine the extent of the cut and future rate reduction pace. Currently, the market expects core and annual CPI to grow. However, if the published data meets or falls below expectations, a 2-point rate cut in September might occur; otherwise, a 1-point cut is the basic expectation. As mentioned earlier, the market typically rises before an expected rate cut, presenting a good opportunity.
When Can Retirement Funds Enter the Market After Trump's Executive Order?
On August 7, 2025, US President Trump signed an executive order expanding 401(k) plan investment options, loosening the approximately $12.5 trillion retirement market. The market interpreted this as increased investment liquidity, leading to new highs in the US stock index and a boost in the cryptocurrency market.
Trump just signed the executive order, and regulatory and administrative procedures are still in early stages. Widespread adoption in the short term is unlikely because:
The SEC and other regulatory agencies need time to issue new guidelines, which could take months or even one to two years.
Retirement fund plans need to assess the risks and costs of offering cryptocurrencies, which could take up to a year from evaluation to implementation.
The most ideal implementation time is 1-2 years later. As regulations are established and investment products are planned, we might see gradual adoption. Companies like BlackRock and Fidelity are already preparing, which could accelerate the process. Long-term, if litigation risks are resolved and participant demand increases, cryptocurrencies might become a mainstream 401(k) plan investment option.
Although the market reaction is positive and Bitcoin and other crypto assets have recently risen in price, actual implementation might take one to two years due to risks, fees, liquidity, and litigation concerns. The fastest current method is direct investment in BTC and ETH spot ETFs, or indirect investment through crypto reserve companies like Strategy. As time passes and regulations become clearer with more industry participants, cryptocurrencies might become a mainstream 401(k) plan option, but direct retirement fund participation remains challenging in the short term. Long-term, this is an epic positive development.
Today's fear index is 69, still in a greedy state.
ETH market share has reached a new high this year. After four consecutive days of net outflows, Bitcoin spot ETF has turned to net inflows. Ethereum spot ETF has also ended two consecutive days of net outflows, recording four consecutive days of net inflows, indicating accelerating capital return to the crypto market.
Currently, Bitcoin remains tense. Breaking $120,000 would result in a cumulative short liquidation intensity of $1.154 billion on major CEXs. If it drops below $116,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs would be $950 million, indicating a balanced situation. Be bold and buy during a pullback. With the rate cut window approaching, why wait to buy until after a significant rise?
