Author: Apisara Sukhathip, Unlocks Insights; Translation: Jinse Finance xiaozou
After StablecoinX announced the completion of a $360 million financing round and plans to repurchase ENA tokens worth $260 million (approximately 8% of the supply) within six weeks, the Ethena (ENA) project has gained significant attention. The protocol creates strong revenue (reaching $307 million in the past year) by retaining 20% of USDe earnings from perpetual contract funding rates, ETH staking, and US Treasury yields.
Positive Factors: The approved fee conversion mechanism may allocate some income to sENA holders—with a baseline yield of approximately 4%, potentially reaching over 10% in bullish scenarios. Other growth drivers include the launch of Converge Chain L2 and the GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin USDtb. This repurchase will also reduce the net token release for next year from 41.6% to 34.6%.
Risk Warning: Over $1.1 billion in private/team tokens will be unlocked in the next year, with an additional $1.1 billion in "pending" ecosystem funds awaiting allocation. Compared to other DeFi protocols, ENA has a relatively high token release/income ratio and has not yet been tested through a prolonged bear market.
Stablecoins are becoming a pillar in the crypto field, supporting payments, trading, and DeFi. With the GENIUS Act providing a legal framework in the United States and Circle's IPO demonstrating significant investor demand, the industry is entering a new growth stage.
In this context, Ethena and its token ENA have become the focus. The launch of StablecoinX—emulating the "Strategy" (formerly MicroStrategy) approach—has made ENA one of the hottest topics on crypto Twitter.
However, hype alone does not tell the whole story. This article will deeply analyze ENA's tokenomics, release mechanism, and value drivers—highlighting the opportunities and risks investors need to pay attention to:
Tokenomics Overview: Current Supply Dynamics and Allocation Structure
Key Catalyst: StablecoinX Financing -- $360 Million Financing and Token Repurchase Plan
Revenue and Value Accumulation Mechanism: Protocol Economic Model, Fee Conversion Mechanism, and Revenue Forecast
Risks and Unlock Pressure: Supply Risks, Release Volume Analysis, and Long-term Sustainability Concerns
1. Tokenomics Overview
Total Supply: 15 billion
Circulating Supply: 6.35 billion (42.36% of total supply)
(3) Strategic Cooperation and Product Expansion Beyond its core stablecoin business, Ethena is expanding its ecosystem to open up new growth channels and value accumulation sources for ENA holders.
First, the team is developing Converge Chain - an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum. This network will serve as the operational base for Ethereal (native perpetual contract decentralized exchange) and other dApps in the Ethena ecosystem. This move not only opens up revenue streams beyond USDe but also creates new pathways for ENA value capture.
Secondly, Ethena Labs has reached a strategic partnership with Anchorage Digital to launch USDtb - the first stablecoin designed with a clear compliance path under the GENIUS Act. This collaboration positions Ethena at the forefront of the next stage of stablecoin applications in the United States and enhances its credibility among institutional investors.
These developments collectively showcase Ethena's grand vision - evolving from a single product protocol to an ecosystem with diverse revenue engines that is more regulatory-compliant.
4. Risks and Token Unlock Pressure
Despite recent catalysts like StablecoinX buyback that mitigate short-term dilution effects, investors should remain cautious about Ethena's long-term token supply dynamics. In the next 12 months alone, over $500 million in tokens will be unlocked for private investors, with another approximately $640 million allocated to the founding team and early contributors. These tokens about to be released represent potential significant selling pressure, reminding investors not to focus solely on short-term positive narratives.
More complexly, the massive ecosystem development fund allocation for Ethena still carries significant uncertainty. The fourth quarter airdrop activity is currently ongoing (starting March 2025), with the first three quarters having already distributed 2.25 billion ENA tokens (750 million per quarter). As the fourth quarter continues, another 13.5% of total supply (about 2 billion tokens, valued at approximately $1.1 billion at current prices) is reserved for future ecosystem building, meaning the protocol faces over $1 billion in uncertainty. This fund size far exceeds most DeFi treasuries, and its potential dilution effect could overwhelm any fee conversion or buyback mechanisms, making the timing and deployment strategy of these tokens crucial to ENA's long-term value proposition.
The following chart shows the ratio of token releases to annualized fee income (calculated based on protocol data from the past 30 days). A higher ratio indicates that token releases far exceed fee generation - visually demonstrating the token value diluted to create $1 in revenue. While this comparison method is not perfect, it provides an effective perspective for analyzing the sustainability of different protocols.
In this context, compared to other mainstream DeFi protocols, ENA shows a higher ratio, reflecting the reality of large-scale token unlocks and continuous supply expansion. Investors assessing ENA's long-term investment value should prioritize this dynamic.
5. Conclusion
Ethena has rapidly emerged as one of the most innovative participants in the stablecoin and synthetic dollar space. With strong revenue generation capabilities, an expanding ecosystem, and catalysts like the StablecoinX buyback plan and upcoming fee conversion, the protocol offers significant value accumulation potential for ENA holders. However, investors must remain cautious amid optimism. Major internal token unlocks, dependence on market-dependent income, and an operational record not yet validated through a complete market cycle remain key risk factors. Ultimately, ENA represents both high growth potential in favorable environments and significant supply risks that must be carefully weighed - both of which require careful consideration in any long-term investment framework.
