Employment Collapse: Trump's Secret Operation | 0801 US Morning Trading

Half an hour ago, market analysts and traders who were focusing on employment data likely experienced a brief dizziness. In the quadrant of employment slowdown, even as mentioned in our micro-strategy three and a half hours earlier, considering complex situations [due to deportation and tightened restrictions causing labor force and participation rate contraction], the interference and distortion of this extremely important data were more significant than expected. The current analysis bulletins and data reports are using language far beyond conventional scales - previously, even tiny deviations would lead to exaggerated rhetoric, but today's deviation magnitude is not described with the same level of vocabulary. In a word, the market might be in a state of shock. Investment bank analysts generally consensus on the breakeven point at 90,000, but today's data shows 73,000, far below this anchor value. Compared to the previous cliff-like drop of 50%, it's also far below the market expectation of 110,000. How can this be described by the commonly used terms of "employment weakness"? Non-farm employment additions have cliff-dropped. However, with labor participation rate declining and overall labor market shrinking, unemployment is rising. No wonder the king has been frantically threatening Powell, with even internal Fed board members showing disagreement, publicly expressing different opinions about a potential 25 bp rate cut in September - Powell, whether personally or professionally, no longer has many opportunities or reasons to maintain his previous stance, even after yesterday's PCE announcement - that current monetary policy is very appropriate. Strong dollar, abruptly halted. Non-US currencies surged, with the dollar dropping 1% intraday. More shockingly, the non-farm employment additions for May and June, after downward revision, are cut to 1.5 times (or jokingly 0.85 times, which is wholesale-like outlet pricing) - almost 87% reduction. This indicates that since Q2, the US employment situation is extremely severe, with the original data masking most of the problems. Stagflation and recession were perfectly concealed by a prosperous market, with White House struggles limited to political correctness and blame-shifting (regarding tariff negatives). Deflationary stagflation and recession are almost like triplet brothers. The situation from about 100 years ago seems to be replaying. The total outbreak of the 1929 crisis, leading to World War II, seems like a prelude to the current situation, step by step: from geopolitics to trade friction, from stagflation to monetary warfare, from industrial overcapacity to explosive unemployment growth - today's narrative is all about the US, having nothing to do with the East. As a result, the king wins again [whether pouting, self-media governance, or repeatedly spinning narratives, the real possibility is interest and chip exchange between parties, with the former as smoke screens and the latter as true strategic goals - achieving the expectation of rate cuts] - reaching a market consensus that rate cuts must happen immediately. Without liquidity release, the market will become a burnt pizza in the quagmire of stagflation and high interest rates. Golden and silver Supported by rate cut and liquidity release expectations, gold smoothly recovered the key static upward resistance level of 3370. Crypto Weakly correlated, but the macro market will gradually digest increased liquidity expectations. Upper resistance/bearish attack grid 117-118x-122x. Military The anger, confusion, and madness of all stakeholders will ultimately be directed towards escalating geopolitical tensions. All favorable or fund-type military-related targets Can be positioned at relatively low points recently The pot can be extended until September 3rd Crazy times naturally have a crazy rhythm If you can't escape, enjoy it; if you can't beat it, join it When US citizens might substantially experience the sentiment of the Great Depression from about 100 years ago, what would those who had empathy during Xiaohongshu cross-referencing think? #BTC #QE Expectation #Wilderness Hunter Investor #Crypto Bearish Arbitrage Hedging Strategy #Diversified Asset Strategy Based on Anti-Fragility