The crypto bull market atmosphere is back, at least recently.
The question is: Which Altcoins will bring excess returns?
During the big bull market in 2021, almost any Altcoin was surging. But since then, the situation has been different.
Currently, millions of new Altcoins have been launched in the market, and to obtain excess returns, careful selection of investment targets is necessary.
In this article, I want to share my crypto project list and key points for project screening.
Let's begin
1. Narrative Heat and User Mindshare
Think about the best-performing tokens in the past 12 months.
First that come to mind are HYPE, VIRTUAL, and memecoins.
Do they all have strong fundamentals? Platforms like HYPE indeed do, but most of the top-performing list certainly do not.
Source: Coingecko's Top Crypto Gainers in 2024 article
They all have one thing in common: extremely high user mindshare on social media, with a group of die-hard fans constantly promoting on X platform.
Besides that, the success of most top performers is also related to powerful narratives.
- Virtual continued to surge during the AI concept boom
- Meme coins rose during the fourth quarter of 2024 to early first quarter of 2025 due to network meme popularity
My advice is to find current hot narratives, search, and then select tokens with extremely high activity on Twitter.
2. Growth Metrics
In a bull market, market enthusiasm (unfortunately) matters far more than fundamentals, but the good news is: some projects can both occupy high attention and achieve high product-market fit.
If a project can have both, it might be an excellent investment. Especially when its key indicators have shown explosive growth recently.
Let me give an example: The stablecoin protocol Ethena saw its TVL surge by 50% in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, many users and analysts on Twitter are paying attention and analyzing the project.
The result? Ethena's token ENA has risen 154% in the past month.
By betting on early-stage projects with continuously growing data indicators (such as constantly growing TVL, revenue, fees) and some community heat, you can make a big profit.
I often use defillama to discover the fastest-growing projects.
3. Reasonable Token Economics
If you plan to hold the token for just a few days, token economics doesn't matter much; but for medium to long-term investment plans, it's completely different.
For example, the TIA token plummeted over 90% in the past 17 months due to massive sell-offs by early investors during each token unlock.
This is why it's important to understand token economics before purchasing a token.
Here are a few points I focus on when researching a token:
Token Unlock Schedule
Tokenomist can check token economics and unlock situations for many popular tokens.
Usually, I hope the circulating supply is at least 30%, and the annual token release (inflation rate) is no more than 20%—35%.
Additionally, if there's a large token unlock recently (for example, unlock amount equivalent to over 20% of current circulating supply), I'd rather not buy that token.
Token Utility
I always ask myself two questions:
Will the token I want to buy benefit from the protocol's success? Why would someone be willing to buy it at a higher price than me?
Dividend mechanisms or token buyback plans are the best solutions I can think of.
Admittedly, while strong token utility is a huge advantage, it's not a necessary condition. I've witnessed many tokens perform excellently with almost no utility.
4. Community First
Currently, a project that follows a community-first approach is more important than ever.
More and more people are unwilling to invest in vague and uninteresting projects; they prefer to support teams that care about the community.
This is also one reason why tokens like HYPE and PENGU have been performing so brilliantly recently.
Some characteristics of crypto projects oriented towards community first:
- Conducted large-scale airdrops
- Their team always promises lightly and delivers heavily
- Team-led marketing: Their team is very active on X platform and continuously interacts with the community
- A large part of token supply is allocated to the community
These are the main factors I consider when choosing tokens.
Another important factor that might drive token prices up is the potential emergence of major catalysts that are not yet priced in.
Possible positive news includes upcoming protocol upgrades, token economic model improvements, or launching new products that can significantly increase project revenue.
Even the best assets are bad investments if bought at a high price.
Wait for the right opportunity and act accordingly, and avoid FOMO chasing.
