According to the four-year cycle of Bit, Bit may hit a new high in 2025 and then quickly decline into a bear market. However, Matt Hougan, founder of ETF issuer Bitwise, states that the Bit halving effect is fading, and under the support of ETFs, institutional adoption, and the Genius Act, the four-year cycle of Bit will be broken. Cryptocurrency will continue to prosper and enter a super cycle in 2026, and early profit-takers may miss significant returns.
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ToggleWhat is the four-year cycle of Bit?
Bit Halving refers to the reduction of Bit rewards for miners by half after every 210,000 blocks are mined. This occurs approximately every four years, with the purpose of controlling supply and maintaining scarcity.
This supply reduction usually triggers market expectations, and historically, prices often rise within 12-18 months after halving.
The four-year cycle is a common theory in the crypto world, suggesting that Bit prices follow a cycle of "Bit Halving → Bull Market → Peak → Bear Market → Low Point → Halving Again".
Institutional funds will help Bit enter a super cycle
Matt Hougan, founder of ETF issuer Bitwise, pointed out in an interview that factors like interest rates, macro environment, and Bit halving have historically influenced the four-year cycle of Bit. However, due to regulatory progress and institutional participation, these factors' impact is diminishing, the market will become more mature, and the risk of severe recession is decreasing.
Cryptocurrency is developing towards a more stable, long-term growth direction, rather than experiencing dramatic boom and bust cycles like in the past.
Matt Hougan predicts that Bit's value will surge significantly in 2026. In market dynamics, institutional investors typically move slower than retail investors, taking more time to evaluate before entering the market. However, institutional adoption is now increasing. He expects 2026 to set a new record for capital inflows, potentially pushing Bit into a "super cycle", and warns that early profit-takers may miss substantial returns.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
