After hitting a historic high, Bit has stabilized around $116,000, appearing calm, but on-chain data reveals movement. CryptoQuant senior analyst AXEL Adler Jr points out that the "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD) ratio, which measures long-term holding behavior, has strongly jumped, approaching the high points before corrections in 2014 and 2019, indicating that "old coins" are moving.
CDD Surge = OG Movement
CDD is calculated by "holding days × coin volume", where a Bit that has been dormant longer will have higher coin days destroyed when transferred. In July this year, monthly and annual CDD ratios surged to 0.25, a rare high in the past decade. Historical experience shows that when long-term holders start massive asset transfers, the market often enters a critical turning point. This data once again sends a warning that long-term funds may choose to lock in profits at high levels.
However, this time is different from the past, as prices have not weakened simultaneously. After CDD rose in 2014 and 2019, Bit experienced sharp corrections; this time, the fund momentum has not disrupted the price structure, indicating that absorption power and selling volume are almost matched.
ETF Funds Entering Market and Changing Hands
The main reason is continuous institutional fund injection through Bit ETFs. From April to now, ETF net inflows total about $18 billion, with $5.2 billion added in July alone, with BlackRock's IBIT being the largest source of momentum. In other words, daily new fund demand has exceeded new mining output, creating a "supply vacuum".
The compliant channel brought by ETFs has lowered entry barriers, with clear custody and tax processes, allowing previously hesitant institutional funds to quickly deploy. As old coins exit, ETF spot demand immediately takes over, creating a market trend completely different from previous "retail selling waves".
On-Chain Indicators Show Divergence
Besides CDD, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders has simultaneously reached a new high, indicating that transferred chips have indeed generated significant profits. Although SOPR is at a high level, it remains below past bubble peaks, suggesting the market has not fallen into overall overheating.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin Dormancy Flow has also broken through upwards, reflecting long-dormant coins awakening. However, strong buying pressure keeps on-chain clearing volume stable, presenting a "quietly changing hands" situation where old coins exit and quickly disperse to newly entered, younger wallet addresses.
End of Bull Market or New Starting Point?
Using past halving cycle experiences, the potential top area 18 months after the April 2024 halving is typically around October 2025. As long as institutional demand continues, Bit could potentially short-term attack $138,000 in this scenario.
The Bit market may have reached the later stage of a bull market, but its structure can no longer be viewed through past experiences.
Long-term chip loosening no longer necessarily brings cliff-like declines because ETF flows and traditional fund depth are reshaping price elasticity. In the coming months, two things need observation: first, whether CDD continues to rise and pull SOPR to a new peak. Second, if ETF inflows slow down, will supply and demand balance tilt?