Written by: @mattdotfi
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article will provide a detailed analysis of whether it is still worth participating in Polymarket's airdrop mining at this stage.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction platform based on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to bet on events by choosing between two possible scenarios. Polymarket gained public attention due to betting events on the 2024 US Presidential Election. During the 2024 US Presidential Election, Polymarket's odds showed that Donald Trump was more likely to be successful than Kamala Harris, and many people placed bets on Polymarket. After Trump's successful election, Polymarket became increasingly popular.
Polymarket currently does not have an official token, but the team has repeatedly hinted that they will issue a token. They have completed three rounds of cryptocurrency venture capital financing, including the C-round last week. Although we know little about this round, sources from June indicated that they hoped to achieve a valuation of over $1 billion in a $200 million financing round.
Source: Crunchbase
About the Airdrop
Polymarket's token with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1 billion seems to be a market consensus, but we still need to consider the following factors:
A conservative estimate predicts that at most 10% of the total supply will be airdropped to traders, as they are the only eligible people to receive the airdrop, and Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.
The sustainability of Polymarket's activity may also be important, as this means you still have enough time to participate.
The Polymarket prediction market has been running for quite a long time, and CC2Ventures had hinted at a snapshot last year.
If you want to participate in airdrop mining, you need to place bets in the market. The following data can be referenced:
Cumulative trading volume reached $15.7 billion.
An average of 24,000 active wallets place bets on Polymarket daily.
Data Source: dune analytics
Currently, 1.2 million wallets have interacted, with half having placed bets more than 5 times.
To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet amount must exceed $500.
Data Source: dune analytics
Conclusion
If the snapshot has not yet been taken, to qualify for the airdrop, you should place bets in markets with an advantage and most likely to develop as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500. You may also need to bet on multiple markets and maintain at least weekly activity.
If you want to participate in this airdrop mining, you must first ensure that you can afford losses ranging from three to four digits, as over 90% of traders will lose money in the long term on any betting/trading platform. Because the expected value (EV) is high enough to offset the expected losses.
In my opinion, I would only participate in airdrop mining at this stage when the token is expected to be launched with a valuation of billions of dollars, as the activity and average bet amount on the platform are difficult for ordinary users to bear. Statistically, if you bet on these prediction markets, you will definitely expect to lose money in the long term.
