As the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is expected to rise again in June, market attention is focused on Trump's tariff policy and its potential inflationary pressures.
According to Wall Street forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, the U.S. June CPI is projected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year, expanding from the previous month's 2.4%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is predicted to rise by 3.0%. Wells Fargo Securities analyzed that if this indicator follows this trend, it could signal a resurgence of the mild inflation rate seen earlier this year.
This trend is interpreted as the initial reflection of the impact of high tariffs recently imposed by President Trump. He has applied 10% tariffs on most imported products, 25% tariffs on foreign automobiles, and over 50% tariffs on specific Chinese products. Pantheon Macroeconomics diagnosed that "this CPI figure will mark a point where the impact of tariffs on consumer prices cannot be denied".
However, not all economic experts share the same view. Nomura analysts stated that "while there might be increases in some tariff-sensitive items in June, the overall impact on prices remains limited" and "full-scale inflation pressure is likely to become more apparent in the second half of the year".
This Consumer Price Index announcement could influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The Fed has maintained its benchmark rate to suppress inflation and has held off on rate cuts in recent months despite relatively mild price increases, due to concerns about delayed cost transfers from tariffs.
Wells Fargo's chief economist Sarah House and Nicole Cervi predicted that "this CPI announcement will show the possibility of prices returning to strength, but not at a level that would prompt an immediate response from the Fed".
If the June CPI is realized as predicted, inflation concerns could increase market uncertainty. Simultaneously, debates about the overall economic impact of the Trump administration's trade policies may reignite.
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