Recently, BTC has successively broken through historical highs, currently trading at $117k. However, it is worth noting that unlike previous market trends, this round of increase has not been driven by leverage, and retail investor sentiment has unexpectedly remained calm. As the price reaches a new historical high, we need to acknowledge that BTC is entering a new trading range.
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Multiple positive catalysts are gradually emerging, laying a good foundation for the upward market in the coming months. BTC has broken through a key trend line, releasing a strong technical breakthrough signal. Since mid-April, BTC spot ETF has been continuously receiving capital inflows. From its launch in January 2024 to date, the BTC ETF has accumulated $49 billion, and structural funds have begun to steadily build positions. July, being a strong season for BTC, coupled with the upcoming "Crypto Policy Week" in Washington, the market is experiencing a rare resonance of macro and regulatory benefits. In this context, the "GENIUS Act" is accelerating its review process in Congress and is expected to bring substantial impact on stablecoin regulation and digital asset popularization.
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The Federal Reserve previously judged that the new round of tariff policies pushed by Trump would bring inflationary pressure. On the "Liberation Day" in April, after the relevant policies were officially announced, consumer sentiment temporarily became cautious, and short-term inflation expectations rose accordingly. However, from the actual data, inflation pressure has not emerged and remains in a moderate range. The last three CPI data points were 2.4% or below, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target; and have been below market expectations for four consecutive periods, significantly alleviating market concerns about inflation rebound. The recently released CPI data is crucial and worth market attention.
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The Federal Reserve is facing continuous political pressure. The FOMC meeting minutes from June 17-18 showed that Fed officials generally tend to start rate cuts, although internal disagreements still exist. On the day the minutes were released, BTC rose by 2%. Currently, the market generally expects two rate cuts this year, with the first potential cut in September. If next week's inflation data does not significantly rebound, Powell will face greater market and political pressure and must provide a clear explanation for his continued hawkish stance.
Summary
This round of BTC increase is notably different from the typical "retail leverage topping" scenarios of previous highs, with overall leverage usage limited and funding rates only slightly turning positive. The real driving force comes from continuous BTC spot ETF inflows and corporate allocation needs. Uncleared contracts have risen moderately with prices, with no obvious new leveraged long positions entering. Despite reaching a historical high, most traders maintain light positions, and the market is far from a crowded stage. Currently, on the capital front, ETF cumulative net inflow has reached $49 billion; policy side is turning loose, with CPI expected to remain moderate; on the regulatory side, the "GENIUS Act" is also expected to make substantial breakthroughs next week. Coupled with July's seasonal advantages, the market is experiencing a rare resonance of multiple benefits. However, from position structure and price trends, the market has not fully priced in these benefits, with further room for development.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extreme risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
