Ethereum ($ETH), $2,925 Recovery, Derivatives Market 'Doubts'… $3,000 Breakthrough Uncertain

Despite ETH's price rising by 13.5% over two days and reaching $2,925, market uncertainty about breaking the $3,000 mark continues. Despite positive indicators such as spot ETF inflows, Layer 2 ecosystem expansion, and increased Total Value Locked (TVL), the derivatives market has not followed expectations. In the CME-based Ethereum futures and options market, investor uncertainty is clearly evident. While recent trading volume has increased compared to late May, open interest and option prices reflect limited upside betting. This suggests a lack of confidence in ETH's sustained growth potential despite short-term market rebounds. Fee reductions and Layer 2 expansion have not played a decisive role in stimulating market demand. According to blockchain data platform Dune, while user activity in major Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism showed noticeable growth compared to the previous month, it has not significantly impacted ETH's actual demand and price momentum. The continued hesitation in ETH futures and options markets despite price rebounds can be attributed to several factors. First, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is pressuring investor sentiment. Additionally, the conservative market outlook on the timing of an approved Ethereum spot ETF is considered a key factor. Market experts analyze that while Layer 2 ecosystem expansion is clearly a positive long-term signal for ETH, immediate improvements in supply and demand or price pressure will take time. Ultimately, for ETH to break and stabilize above the $3,000 mark, meaningful demand growth based on actual usage must accompany capacity expansion.