As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move near its all-time high, an indicator observed on Binance has been analyzed as potentially signaling the market's direction. The key is the gap between spot and perpetual futures prices, known as the 'Spot-Perpetual Delta'.
Recently, CryptoQuant pointed out that on Binance, Bitcoin's spot price has been consistently higher than perpetual futures prices since December last year. Such a prolonged spot premium generally signals strong demand in the spot market, but also indicates that the leverage market remains cautious.
In fact, when this delta first turned negative at the end of last year, Bitcoin recorded its then-highest price with strong buying pressure, mostly driven by futures traders using leverage. Subsequently, as Bitcoin dropped to $74,000 and then recovered to a new all-time high, this delta has remained negative. This structure suggests a potential accumulation phase for long-term growth rather than a short-term surge.
Market analysts evaluate that this spot-driven upward trend is structurally more robust as it progresses without excessive leverage inflow. It's also a positive signal in terms of reducing volatility risk from sudden liquidations. However, if this delta turns positive again, it could indicate a massive inflow of leveraged long positions, potentially signaling a demand concentration zone and local peak.
Amid this trend, institutional investor accumulation is also being observed. Bitfinex Alpha reported that Bitcoin is showing strong structural support by defending the short-term holder realized price of $98,220. Additionally, the rise in short-term holders' average purchase price to $99,474 indicates new inflows, especially institutional demand through ETFs.
Meanwhile, whale investors have sold over 14,000 BTC since June 30, realizing some profits, with individual and institutional investors absorbing these sales. This demonstrates Bitcoin's strong upward momentum amid stock market strength and macro uncertainties.
The Spot-Perpetual Delta on Binance serves as more than just a price difference, acting as a crucial signal for understanding institutional accumulation, leverage utilization, and market structure health. The future variation of this indicator is expected to be a key point in determining Bitcoin's next major trend.
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