October Altcoin Season Forecast… Interest Rate Cuts, Weak Dollar, Strong ETH ‘Triangle Signal’

The cryptocurrency market is gradually expanding from a Bitcoin (BTC)-centered flow to altcoins. In particular, with three key indicators intertwining - the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, global investment sentiment changes, and Ethereum's (ETH) relative strength - there are predictions that a full-fledged altcoin season could begin from October. Crypto Decoder, a cryptocurrency analyst, recently analyzed that "the start of the altcoin season was delayed in this cycle" and that "except for some altcoins that saw a short-term surge, most have continued to show weakness compared to Bitcoin." However, he is focusing on the possibility of an altcoin rebound in the fourth quarter based on three major market signals. The first notable factor is the weakness of the US Dollar Index (DXY). In the past, when the DXY declined, investors turned to risky assets, resulting in altcoin market capitalization surging 285 times in 2017 and 17 times in 2021. Currently, the DXY is unable to break through the 109 level resistance, and there is an analysis that additional declines could lead to capital inflows into altcoins again. However, Crypto Decoder predicts that a full-fledged price rebound will only occur if the Fed actually shifts to an accommodative monetary policy. The second is the relatively less-known copper-gold ratio, which indicates global investors' risk appetite. When copper prices exceed gold prices, it is interpreted as a signal of improved risk asset investment sentiment. Currently, this ratio has hit a multi-year low and rebounded, recovering its 20-week moving average, which is similar to the prelude to altcoin seasons in 2017 and 2020. The third indicator is Ethereum's strength. Ethereum recorded higher returns than Bitcoin in the last quarter, which hasn't happened since the fourth quarter of 2022. Particularly, after the ETF-based capital inflow exceeded $2 billion since May 2025, there are analyses suggesting increased institutional investor interest in the alt market. If Ethereum, which accounts for over 50% of total DeFi locked assets, shows strength, several following altcoins are likely to rise together. Experts are particularly focusing on the fourth quarter of this year. Crypto Decoder analyzed that "while August-September might continue without volatility, if the Fed cuts rates in September, buying momentum could explode after October." Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe also noted that "the Altcoin Season Index showed a June low signal again" and diagnosed that a similar upward trend to 2023 could be reproduced. Actually, this atmosphere is similar to market trends after past halving cycles. Experts believe that if the current Bitcoin strength spreads to the altcoin market over time, not just top market cap altcoins but also mid-to-small-sized coins could see a broad-based rebound. The remaining variable is the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift. If rate cuts become a reality, there is growing expectation that October could be the catalyst for a large-scale altcoin season.