In the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market can be summarized as 'Bitcoin's solo run and altcoin silence'. While Bitcoin continued its upward trend with institutional funds flowing in through the US spot ETF, altcoins mostly recorded a downward trend amid oversupply and lack of demand.
Particularly in 2025, with billions of dollars worth of token unlocks concentrated, the structural vulnerabilities of the altcoin market are being highlighted again.
Bitcoin Up 7% in First Half... Ethereum Down 25%, Solana Down 18%
According to market data, Bitcoin started around $100,000 in early January 2025 and closed around $107,000 by the end of June, rising approximately 7%.
In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) dropped about 25% during the same period, and Solana (SOL) fell nearly 18%. As a result, the return gap between Bitcoin and major altcoins widened to around 32 percentage points.
While ETF and institutional funds were concentrated on Bitcoin, the altcoin market faced structural selling pressure and declining interest.
Accordingly, the first-half return gap between Bitcoin and altcoins is analyzed to be around 30 percentage points.
$59 Billion Token Unlock, Altcoins' 'Heavy Burden'
According to the blockchain industry, approximately $59 billion (about 8 trillion won) worth of token unlocks were estimated during the first half of 2025 from major projects such as Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, Sui, and ApeCoin.
This coincides with the point when investment volumes raised at the peak between 2021-2022 begin to be massively released to the market, acting as a factor that intensifies price decline pressure due to oversupply.
With over $30 billion in additional unlocks scheduled for the second half, investor vigilance is heightening.
Accelerating Individual Investor Exodus... Meme Coin and Theme Coin Trading Volume Plummets
Meme coins and thematic altcoins also took a direct hit from deteriorating investment sentiment. Dogecoin (DOGE), Pepe (PEPE), and FLOKI have fallen more than 60% from their all-time highs, and market trading volume has shrunk to half compared to 2021-2022.
According to DappRadar, active dApp users on major chains decreased by 18% year-on-year as of the second quarter of 2025. Continuing downward trends in search traffic on Google Trends and TradingView indicate that individual investor interest is practically withdrawing.
"Technical Rebound Possible, But Structural Recovery Not Yet"
Market analysis firm Santiment stated, "In a situation where fear psychology has reached extreme levels, a rebound can occur due to short position liquidation" and "The fact that funding rates for some altcoins have turned negative suggests the possibility of a short-term rally".
However, experts pointed out that "This is merely a technical rebound, and without improving fundamentals such as token distribution structure, user demand, and monetization models, medium to long-term recovery will be difficult".
ETF Funds Concentrated on BTC... Urgent Need to Improve Altcoin Market Structure
Currently, while Bitcoin is establishing itself as an institutional asset centered on ETF funds, altcoins are still classified as speculative high-risk assets.
An industry official said, "From an investor's perspective, altcoins remain a supply-driven market where it's difficult to find factors for intrinsic value increase" and added that "It's a critical time to resolve unlock burdens and secure practical monetization models for projects".
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