Weekend is here, let's take an overall look at the market situation: The recent market trend is not particularly hot, but it carries a sense of "undercurrent".
BTC's recent trend is essentially moving sideways.
Looking at the technical side, RSI is stuck in the middle zone, neither overbought nor oversold, with market confidence wavering. MACD is still above the zero line, but momentum is weakening, and traders are generally turning to a wait-and-see approach. The real key lies in the support below. BTC currently relies on the 50-day moving average (around 102,000) and 200-day moving average (around 95,000), which are technically like a "floor" that determines whether this upward structure can remain stable.
Upward pressure is also obvious: The areas around 109,000 and 111,000 have repeatedly suppressed rebounds. Only a true breakthrough could potentially lead to a new round of upward movement, with targets possibly reaching 115,000 or even 120,000. However, the market currently lacks a "catalyst". Daily trading volume has shrunk from a high of 85 billion USD to the current 65 billion, and the volume contraction indicates increasing wait-and-see sentiment, suggesting that the next big wave of movement may be brewing.
Compared to BTC's steadiness, Ethereum has received a major positive news—the GENIUS Act, which could be a "pass" for institutional investment in ETH.
Simply put, this new US law sets rules for stablecoins and smart contracts, eliminating the "regulatory uncertainty" that institutions are most concerned about. Grayscale analyst Vivek Raman points out that GENIUS is expected to become a catalyst for large-scale institutional funds flowing into Ethereum.
Why is this significant?
Because Ethereum itself is the underlying platform for smart contracts. Once it becomes a "compliant asset", its position is no longer just a "speculative target", but the next-generation financial infrastructure. Additionally, ETH's technical iterations continue to progress—improving on-chain efficiency, reducing fees, and maintaining an active development ecosystem, all indicating that Ethereum is ready to "welcome institutions".
The passage of GENIUS is not just about attracting funds, but more importantly, it releases innovation space. Many past DeFi and Non-Fungible Token projects were stuck in legal gray areas, and now with regulatory support, developers can finally proceed with confidence.
Moreover, ETH's first-mover advantage remains strong. Although latecomers like Solana and Avalanche have grown rapidly, in terms of ecosystem depth, developer numbers, and user base, ETH is still the leader. With policy and technology driving it, ETH's landscape is quietly changing.
Future outlook: Waiting for BTC's catalyst, ETH entering an upward channel?
If you ask me how I see this market cycle? My view is:
#BTC: Currently waiting for direction, but holding 100,000 is a strong performance. As long as it doesn't break this level, breaking through 111,000 is just a matter of time, and the market will eventually find a reason to break upward. But be aware that there might be a false breakthrough in the near term, with the real big market trend possibly not appearing until Q4.
#ETH: It has already sensed the policy dividend. The implementation of the GENIUS Act may become the true starting point for igniting ETH's upward channel.
For us, the focus in the next phase is two words: wait for confirmation. Wait for trading volume to expand again, wait for breakthroughs at key price points, wait for the synergistic effect of policies and funds to manifest.
Conclusion:
Most people only rush in during the bull market's peak, overlooking that the real turning point is slowly brewing right now. Bitcoin is waiting for a breakthrough, Ethereum is already gathering momentum. Although the market is temporarily not hot, sentiment is warming up, and logic is taking shape.
In this stage, stability is more important than precision, and position control is more valuable than predictions. Don't rush to judge, patiently wait for the market to provide its own answer. Let's wait together and seize the opportunity.
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