Entering the second half of 2025, Bitcoin volatility remains low, with monthly transaction volume declining, while the cumulative net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs approaches $50 billion.
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According to The Block's data, Bitcoin's "market" expected volatility (an indicator measuring price fluctuations between 7 days and 6 months) has dropped to its lowest level since October 2023, when Bitcoin's value was approximately one-third of its current price.
In addition to low volatility, Bitcoin network's monthly transaction volume in June decreased by 15% compared to May, reaching its lowest level since October 2023. In recent weeks, trading activity has bottomed out, with some extremely low-fee transactions still being selected by miners from the memory pool and packaged into blocks.
Despite low network activity, Wall Street's demand for Bitcoin continues to grow. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record new cumulative inflows. In the past two days, these funds have attracted over $1 billion, with a cumulative net inflow approaching $50 billion. According to SoSoValue, the total value of Bitcoin held by these funds is currently around $137.6 billion, a historical high.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, listed companies were also active buyers in June, purchasing approximately 65,000 BTC (valued at $7 billion at current prices). A glassnode analysis in June showed that while on-chain activity is almost non-existent, the number of transactions from high-net-worth individuals and institutions has significantly increased, indicating the growing role of institutions and "whales" on the Bitcoin network.
Bitcoin investors currently hold approximately $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits. This impressive figure reflects the book profits accumulated by long-term investors as Bitcoin continues to approach its historical highs.
Changes in Bitcoin Investor Demographics
glassnode data shows that the average unrealized profit per investor is around 125%, lower than the 180% when BTC reached its peak price of $73,000 in March 2024.
However, despite the substantial unrealized profits, investor behavior suggests they are not eager to sell. Bitcoin's daily realized profits remain relatively moderate, averaging only $872 million.
This contrasts sharply with previous bull markets, when BTC prices were $73,000 and $107,000, and realized profits surged from $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion.
Moreover, the current market sentiment indicates that investors are waiting for price increases before adjusting their positions. This trend suggests that long-term investors are holding their positions, with accumulation and mature flow far exceeding selling pressure.
This highlights that HODLing remains the primary market behavior among investors, with accumulation and mature flow far surpassing distribution pressure.
Bitcoin Leverage Reaches New Yearly High
According to CryptoQuant, the estimated leverage rate for BTC across all exchanges has risen to 0.27, the highest level in the past 12 months.
While this indicates traders' higher risk appetite and optimism about upward prospects, it also suggests potential chain liquidation effects. When using high leverage or borrowed funds for trading, violent price fluctuations can destroy positions in the blink of an eye.
Despite the high leverage, based on financing rate data, the market is not too active or too hot, and there's no need for concern.
CoinGlass data shows that BTC's financing rate hovers around 2%, far from the "overheated" levels of over 50% seen at the end of 2024.
In short, as long as other factors remain positive, the current leverage level is still considered healthy for BTC to continue rising.
Meanwhile, if a liquidation hunt does occur, two key levels to watch in the short term are $103,000 and $111,000 - these regions have higher liquidity and could become "price magnets".
In fact, if the market adjusts short-term and reaches these levels, leveraged long positions worth around $8 billion (around $103,000) may be at risk.
Other short-term macro adverse factors include Trump's tariff deadline on July 9th and the recently passed reconciliation bill.
