Key Indicators: (June 23 at 4 PM Hong Kong Time → June 30 at 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
< ul>- <>the, been in channel (except for a short-term breakthrough of $100k due to Israel-Iran tensions)., feels ready for an upward move, just needing to find enough momentum to break through the the strong resistance at $108.5k and then $112.5k. However, if we fail to break through, we might slowly return to the bottom of the flag, but will encounter trend support at $101k and a stronger support at $98k. If these levels are further breached, we could see a significant price drop to k.
Market Themes
- <>geopolitical tensions gradually faded went through a very calm week with overall positive risk sentiment. Market focus shifted to US developments. Trump announced he will soon announce a new a Federal Reserve chair and assured the market he would "lower rates", with the market quickly pricing in rate cuts (20% probability of July cut, expected 2-year US stock markets faced no major obstacles, with& and Indexes hit historical highs. The clearly is positioning for low volatility/risk investments for summer vacation and does not seem worried about be the upcoming trade tariff deadline.
Compared to the overall rising risk sentiment, the cryptocurrency market remained very calm. Bitcoin's recent strong correlation with Nasdaq lagged, the too many long gammas and many sell orders before the local resistance at $108.5-109k. Small coins also did failed to join this risk rise, solanaated before the expected ETF issuance this Wednesday.
BTC ATM Implied Volatility
Last week, actual volatility rapidly weakened. Mainly because spot prices returned to the comfortable zone of $110-112k, where Bitcoin had already stayed for over 2 months; meanwhile, the market clearly held many long Gammas, which also contributed to price being restricted within the.ility was therefore significantly suppressed, and we saw daily volatprilityiced 30for the year even the September expiration implied volatility was nearly below 40 points.
The term structure is quite steep within one month to expiry, with daily volatility set at 27-28 points in the next few days, but set at 40 points before late July. The far end of the term structure significantly flattened, with the market completely losing consideration of actual volatility shifting to a higher range, thus creating very attractive term trading opportunities.
BTC Skew/Kurtosis
Last week, skew prices remained largely sideways as no directional momentum in the spot market led to relatively flat.-iries leaned downdownward considering considering the more ferocious actual volatility during downturns, while longer-termew leaned upward due to market's lack of interest in downward Vega.
Kurtosis initially remained sideways but ultimately declined. As the market accumulated more long positions, many sellers continuously sold one side to fund their long positions. However, considering the tendency towards higher actual volatility regions and volatility's high fluctuations, we believe one should seize buying kurtosis during downmovements (especially considering actual volatility has performed poorly locally).
Good luck everyone this week!
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