The cryptocurrency market is in a very contradictory stage in mid-2025. This is a period when potential opportunities arise simultaneously due to a decrease in global interest and an increase in liquidity.
The third quarter of 2025 could be a critical moment that presents both challenges and hope for investors.
Bitcoin Faces Global Indifference
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining stability above $100,000, global indifference is undeniable. Google searches for Bitcoin and various cryptocurrency and blockchain-related Wikipedia pages have dropped to the bottom levels of previous Bitcoin cycles.
"In fact, there are almost no people interested in cryptocurrencies right now. Most are just watching and waiting..." – Joao Wedson, Alphractal CEO
This chart shows a gradual decrease in peak interest, especially since 2021. This reflects retail investor fatigue after strong market volatility. Historically, such situations have paved the way for major recoveries, like Bitcoin's surge from $3,000 to $14,000 in 2018-2019. However, this lack of interest could risk market stagnation without new catalysts.
Previously, at the end of April 2025, Bitcoin search volume remained low on Google Trends, despite BTC price exceeding $90,000. Changes in information behavior and Bitcoin market maturity are contributing to the decrease in Google searches.
Positive Signals in Global Liquidity
Meanwhile, promising signals are emerging in global liquidity, expanding at the fastest rate since 2021. Increased liquidity typically drives capital into risky assets like cryptocurrencies, especially as global interest rates show signs of declining in the 2025 economic landscape.
According to Bitfinex Alpha's report, Bitcoin continues trading within a clear range between $100,000 and $110,000. This indicates a correction after nearly a 50% surge from the April low of $74,634. The third quarter has historically been BTC's weakest quarter, recording +6% instead of the second quarter's over 31%. During this period, price movements tend to remain within range.
"This suggests the market is preparing for potential changes. However, the current investor indifference towards Bitcoin means they might 'arrive too late to become whale liquidity,'" CEO Joao Wedson warned.
Additionally, the % Supply Active 30-day change indicator has dropped by 17%, signaling accumulation, according to analyst Axel AdlerJr Jr. This is consistent with historical cycles preceding a bull market.
"The current value is -17%. In September 2024, this was enough to start a new rally." – Axel AdlerJr shared.
Conditions for Explosive Surge
However, not all signals support an immediate breakthrough. According to analyst Julio Moreno, Bitcoin's bull score is currently 50, and it needs to exceed 60 to trigger a true rally.
This means investors must be patient and wait for catalysts such as macroeconomic news or actions by major institutions.
