Ripple ($XRP), Solana ($SOL), Litecoin ($LTC) Spot ETF Approval Probability Raised to 95%… “The Altcoin ETF Era Has Opened”

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has raised the possibility of approving spot ETFs for XRP, LTC, and SOL to 95%. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas mentioned that the SEC is set to decide on related ETF approvals in October, with a high likelihood of opening a new altcoin ETF era in the second half of 2025. The two analysts recently adjusted the approval probability for spot ETFs tracking LTC, SOL, and XRP from 90% to 95% on X (formerly Twitter). They also suggested a 90% approval possibility for Doge, ADA, DOT, HBAR, and AVAX, heralding the arrival of the **'altcoin ETF summer season'**. However, the prospects for Sui and TRX were relatively lower. These two assets lack CFTC-approved futures products, resulting in approval probabilities of 60% and 50% respectively. The SEC's ambiguity about classifying SUI and TRX as securities also acts as a barrier to ETF promotion. This optimistic outlook seems to stem from recent changes in the SEC's attitude. According to Blockworks, the SEC has recently requested the latest S-1 registration documents from ETF issuers and committed to providing feedback within 30 days of submission. They specifically requested clear explanations of staking structures and spot exchange mechanisms. Amid this trend, the first U.S. 'staking-based cryptocurrency ETF' is imminent. The REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF will be officially listed this Wednesday, allowing individual investors to directly receive rewards through Solana staking. At least 40% of the ETF will be diversified into non-U.S. listed cryptocurrency ETFs to meet various regulatory conditions. Meanwhile, ETH-related staking ETFs are still making little progress. The SEC has delayed the approval of Bitwise's ETH staking ETF and is postponing Osprey's application to convert its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF. Although Bitwise proposed including staking rewards in existing ETH ETFs, the SEC has entered an official review process, citing a need to re-examine investor protection requirements. The cryptocurrency market is interpreting this announcement as a **positive signal of institutionalization**. ETF introduction can serve as a crucial turning point by increasing asset liquidity and credibility and strengthening connections with traditional finance. The possibility of another transformation in the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2025 is growing.