As the proportion of Bitcoin (BTC) supply in a profitable state reaches 98%, strong upward expectations are reflected, but at the same time, warnings about potential short-term adjustments are also emerging. According to recent on-chain data-based analyst forecasts, optimism is growing that Bitcoin prices could reach up to $200,000 (approximately 278 million won) by the end of 2025.
According to a recent analysis provided by blockchain data platform glassnode, the ratio of profitable Bitcoin wallets between June 22 and June 29 sharply increased from 87% to 98%. As of July 1, this proportion slightly decreased to around 96.65% but remains at a high level.
When the profitable state ratio reaches such a high level, historical data shows a tendency for market volatility to expand. This is because investors are more likely to realize profits. While this demonstrates that upward expectations for the Bitcoin market are still valid, it can also be interpreted as a signal that a short-term adjustment could occur at any time.
In fact, after the Bitcoin profitable supply ratio last exceeded 98% on January 21, the BTC price dropped from around $109,000 (approximately 151.51 million won) to $74,000 (approximately 102.88 million won). This is cited as a precedent where profit-taking at the peak led to a price decline.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin can reach $200,000 (approximately 278 million won) in the medium to long term, but for this scenario to materialize, steady buying pressure and maintaining an upward trend are necessary. In the short term, where profit-taking pressure increases, price adjustments may be repeated, requiring investors to approach cautiously.
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