Written by: Kosta Gushterov, Coindoo
Compiled by: Jessica, Techub News
Bitcoin research expert AXEL Adler Jr points out that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of entering a stable consolidation phase, with conditions for a historic new high maturing. His analysis indicates that the current bull market cycle launched in November 2022 has a solid foundation.
Key Cycle Characteristics
Adler emphasizes that in this cycle, there have been only two major corrections exceeding 30% - occurring in August 2024 and April 2025. Despite deep retracements, Bitcoin quickly recovered and continued to create new highs, with 10-20% moderate corrections becoming classic wash-out patterns that maintain the long-term upward trend.
Narrow Correction and $96,000 Strong Support
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in the range of $100,000 to $108,000, with the recent maximum retracement being only 4.7%. Adler specifically notes that even when measured by weekly simple moving average (SMA), the current decline is only 7%, indicating the market is in a healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal.
"Each correction's amplitude is gradually narrowing, confirming the market's increasing maturity," Adler stated. He added that without major negative news, the critical support level of $96,000 will help drive prices to new highs.
Exchange Flows Reveal Supply Tightening
Adler also observed significant changes in centralized exchange (CEX) fund flows: BTC's daily average circulation (inflow + outflow) has dropped to 40,000, a ten-year low. This clearly shows investors are shifting towards long-term holding, and the reduced market liquidity lays the groundwork for a price surge driven by liquidity.
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Weekly net outflow remains at -4,300, continuing the trend of exchange inventory reduction. The 30-day moving average of inflow/outflow reflects the level last seen at the beginning of the bull market in late 2023, confirming that market demand remains strong even during short-term price consolidation.
Future Outlook: New High Anticipated
Based on narrowing corrections, tightening exchange supply, and solid structural support, Adler concludes that as long as momentum continues and there are no macro impacts, Bitcoin is about to launch a new round of growth, with a historic new high potentially imminent.
