Bitcoin (BTC) once dropped below $99,000 (approximately 137.61 million won), but has recovered to $107,000 (approximately 148.73 million won), stimulating expectations. However, the market atmosphere is quite different from previous bull markets. There is no FOMO (fear of missing out), and individual investors' buying rush is missing. Only institutional funds, whales, and traders' quiet movements are supporting the indicators. On-chain data is also unusually quiet.
This *calmness* in the market reflects not just a simple price rebound, but the clear shadow of economic uncertainty. The US economy is showing signs of *stagflation* amid growth slowdown and persistent inflation. The Federal Reserve is struggling between suppressing inflation and stimulating the economy, and there are analyses suggesting this uncertainty could actually be a positive for Bitcoin. However, it remains questionable whether a market formed on financial statements can drive belief-based growth.
Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not explicitly mention the word in his recent congressional report, concerns about 'stagflation' were deeply embedded in his statements. Powell stated that he is prepared to wait for clearer data on whether Trump's tariff policies will cause long-term price increases. Simultaneously released US economic indicators are meeting the typical stagflation conditions of growth slowdown, rising unemployment, and price stickiness.
On June 17th, the Federal Reserve lowered its 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4%. During the same period, inflation forecast rose from 2.7% to 3%, and unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.4% to 4.5%. Private indicators show similar trends. June's S&P Global PMI preliminary reading was 52.8, down from the previous month's 53.0, with clear export declines, inventory increases, and consumption contraction.
The US Department of Commerce's downward revision of Q1 real GDP growth rate from -0.3% to -0.5% is also a warning signal. Personal consumption expenditure growth rate has fallen to 0.5%, the lowest since 2020, while core inflation rose to 3.8%. External trade conditions are also showing signs of further deterioration. The 90-day tariff grace period implemented by Trump has only 12 days left, meaning from July 9th, mutual tariffs up to 50% will be applied to the European Union (EU) and a minimum base tariff of 10% worldwide.
Trade negotiations with China continue under a 90-day grace period since the May 14th agreement, but without additional agreements by August 12th, further conflicts are likely. Especially, existing coordination on rare earth and technology regulations is only a short-term progress, and a definitive agreement between the two countries remains far off.
After the Israel-Iran conflict subsided and faded from global headlines, US-initiated trade wars are again applying pressure. Amid this, assets with tangible value like Bitcoin are gaining attention again. However, one crucial element of a bull market is missing.
Bitcoin's on-chain indicators suggest that this rally is based on 'accounting' rather than 'belief'. According to analysis firm CryptoQuant, the current monthly average Bitcoin inflow to Binance is only 5,700 BTC, lower than during the 2022 bear market. In the past, a bull market would see individual investors pouring in funds and increasing exchange inflows, but now it's just static.
Ultimately, the market is moving, but public belief has not yet returned. Predictions are gaining momentum that the next strong rise will begin around fall 2025 when investor confidence is restored.
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