Welcome to the US Cryptocurrency Morning Briefing. We'll briefly summarize today's key cryptocurrency developments.
Prepare your coffee. The next few days could be historic for BTC and Wall Street. Michael Saylor's strategy (MSTR) is just one quarter away from joining the S&P 500 as the largest corporate BTC holder. However, there is a condition that BTC must maintain an important support level. In cryptocurrency, everything can happen quickly.
Strategy Nears S&P 500 Entry... Depends on BTC Price
Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), led by Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor, is on the verge of being included in the S&P 500, one of the most authoritative milestones in the US market.
But there's a condition. BTC must not drop more than 10% before June 30. If it does, Strategy could lose this opportunity according to S&P 500 listing criteria.
"To be considered for the S&P 500, the company must report positive cumulative earnings over the past quarter." Walton explained.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $107,119, rising about 2% in the past 24 hours.
"If BTC's price does not fall more than 10% before June 30, Strategy has a 91% chance of being included in the S&P 500," Walton said.
Walton set the critical support level at $95,240, which is the minimum BTC price needed to maintain Strategy's quarterly earnings positively.
Walton's probability model is based on Bitcoin's historical behavior. Since September 2014, in over 3,900 six-day periods, BTC has fallen more than 10% only 343 times (8.7%).
Based on this performance record, Walton says the probability of decline decreases as time passes.
"For example, if only two days remain until the quarter-end, the probability of a 10% decline drops to 4.2%," he explained.
If successful, Strategy will be the second cryptocurrency-related company to join the S&P 500 in 2025, after Coinbase, which joined last May.
In fact, Strategy was added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024, indicating increasing acceptance of Bitcoin-centric companies in traditional finance (TradFi).
Strategy has recorded losses in the past three quarters. However, the second-quarter results, significantly influenced by the fair market value of its 592,345 BTC holdings, will confirm its S&P 500 inclusion.
Recent BTC volatility has created tension, especially when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed BTC below $100,000 last weekend, threatening Strategy's position.
91% chance of $MSTR qualifying for S&P in 6 days https://t.co/uGkzAuTQ2Y
— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) June 24, 2025
Today's Chart
Today's Key News
Summary of today's notable US cryptocurrency news:
- How Sei Price Grew Over 100% in June: Explanation of key factors.
- Eight major Korean banks are establishing a joint venture to create a stablecoin pegged to the Korean Won (KRW).
- Are Pi Network pioneers jumping to conclusions about the Chainlink-Mastercard deal?
- Arbitrum experiences a surge of $1.43 million in revenue, with RWA driving DeFi growth.
- Arizona Legislature passes Bitcoin confiscation reserve bill: Will the governor approve?
- Polymarket closes $200 million round led by Founders Fund and becomes a crypto unicorn with over $1 billion valuation.
- Trump Media is eyeing SEC approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
- San Antonio Spurs partner with Ledger for 2025 NBA jersey branding.
- Meme coin Melania price drops 7% as the Melania team sells $35 million in tokens.
- Hash rate hits 8-month low—Is this a golden entry opportunity for Bitcoin miners, or is risk approaching?
Cryptocurrency Stock Pre-Market Overview
| Company | Closed on June 24 | Pre-Market Overview |
| Strategy (MSTR) | $377.02 | $382.90 (+1.56%) |
| Coinbase Global (COIN) | $344.82 | $358.57 (+3.99%) |
| Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) | $19.71 | $20.10 (+1.98%) |
| MARA Holdings (MARA) | $14.88 | $15.18 (+2.02%) |
| Riot Platform (RIOT) | $10.02 | $10.18 (+1.60%) |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $12.21 | $12.29 (+0.67%) |
