Bitcoin, $100,000 collapse… AM Management: “Middle East risk shakes market flow”

AM Management, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a weak signal by falling below the $100,000 support level, while the escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to burden global investment sentiment. The military tensions between the United States and Iran and the emerging threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz are expanding the risk premium across energy supply and global logistics systems. The report evaluated that Bitcoin closed at $100,963, declining by -4.38% in the fourth week of June, and the Fibonacci 0.382 level at $97,650 could serve as a short-term technical rebound support. However, the overall short-term trend is interpreted as entering a downward convergence structure. In particular, as the dominance indicator breaks through the upper wedge, the selling pressure is expanding across the altcoin market. AM Management predicted that the altcoin's rebound potential would be limited until the dominance falls below 64.8%. From a macroeconomic perspective, market volatility is likely to expand this week. With the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the semi-annual monetary policy report by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the market is on high alert for clues about the Fed's future stance. According to the CME FedWatch, there is an 83.5% probability that the benchmark interest rate will be maintained at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, if the inflation indicators exceed expectations, expectations for the US central bank's tightening stance could be revived. In the position and supply analysis, strategic positioning differences between institutions were clearly evident. Open interest slightly increased, and asset management companies expanded short positions from a conservative perspective to strengthen hedging, while non-reportable and other reporters expanded long positions, reflecting bidirectional expectations. This suggests that market prospects remain uncertain despite signs of liquidity recovery. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization recorded $3.05 trillion, a 5.57% decrease from the previous week, and Bitcoin's market capitalization remains at around $2.007 trillion, ranking 6th in global assets. Tether (USDT)'s dominance rose to 5.10%, and concerns are raised that Bitcoin's price decline could be prolonged if this trend continues. AM Management emphasized the need to pay attention to the inverse correlation between Tether dominance and Bitcoin price. This week, large-scale token unlock schedules are planned for Core, Blast, and Venom, which are expected to impact market liquidity to some extent. Simultaneously, with the launch of Artificial Liquid Intelligence's staking program, there is potential for some capital inflow and dispersion to change market structure. The report concluded by noting that the *constantization* of Middle East risks is causing structural changes across international asset markets, and especially the US strategic strikes and Iran's hardline response could be the prelude to a geopolitical paradigm shift beyond short-term events. Accordingly, the analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency market should carefully observe macroeconomic situations and adjust response strategies.