In June 2025, retail investors' activity in the cryptocurrency market significantly increased, particularly centered around Bitcoin (BTC).
This movement occurred as retail investors grew concerned about geopolitical tensions potentially impacting their portfolios. Their actions stood in contrast to institutional investors.
Retail Investors Who Bet on Decline Suffer Losses Due to Iran-Israel Ceasefire
According to CryptoQuant, on June 15th, the Bitcoin inflow rate for retail investors exceeded 25% on Binance, with BTC trading around $105,000. This marked the strongest retail BTC inflow since May 2023.
A second surge occurred on June 19th, reaching a 19% rate. These two events reflected the group's active participation amid market volatility.
Notably, these two inflow surges occurred before the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran. However, tensions between Israel and Iran may have influenced retail investors' sentiment. Consequently, many retail investors moved Bitcoin to exchanges in preparation for potentially worsening situations.
"Depositing BTC on Binance typically indicates trading intent rather than holding. Retail participants often appear to lag behind market movements, but this time they might have been ahead. This is rare but interesting behavior." – CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn
Some retail investors avoided a potential drop below $100,000 by sending Bitcoin to exchanges for sale. However, this trend led to an increase in short positions in the retail sector.
According to Alphractal, the retail long/short ratio has been declining. Retail investors are shorting Bitcoin and altcoins, primarily represented by cooler colors on the heatmap.
"Retail short positions are increasing, and whales are showing more interest in longs compared to retail." – Alphractal founder Joao Wedson
Initially, retail investors seemed to be moving in the right direction. However, Trump's positive announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel triggered a market rebound. Bitcoin quickly surpassed $105,000, and the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) recovered by 10%.
As a result, short position holders experienced massive liquidations of nearly $500 million within 24 hours.
According to Coinglass, almost $500 million in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Most of these were from short positions, with total short liquidations exceeding $358 million, three times the long position liquidations.
This demonstrates that unexpected changes in geopolitical tensions can still harm retail investors.
Meanwhile, as retail investors struggle with market volatility, institutional Bitcoin accumulation continues steadily. This highlights the deepening gap between retail and institutional actions today.
