Israel and Iran have reached a "comprehensive ceasefire agreement" and will end the war 24 hours after the ceasefire. As soon as the news broke, the cryptocurrency market quickly rebounded, with BTC and Ethereum leading the way, bringing an optimistic atmosphere to the overall market.
VX: TZ7971
CoinGecko market data shows that BTC rose 3.9% in the past 24 hours, rising from the early morning low of $100,177 to a high of $105,927, currently trading at $105,093; Ethereum performed even better, surging 7.2% in the past 24 hours, trading at $2,403.
The ceasefire news significantly eased market tension, with funds flowing back into risky assets.
As the conflict situation cools down and geopolitical tensions ease with the Israel-Iran ceasefire, market confidence has returned, with funds quickly rejoining, indicating strong institutional momentum.
Over the past few weeks, Iran and Israel's relations rapidly deteriorated, escalating from decades of geopolitical competition to drone and missile confrontation. The US military strike against Iran over the weekend severely impacted cryptocurrency market confidence, causing prices to drop and funds to wait and see.
Although this cryptocurrency market rebound was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions, whether it can continue into a longer-term bullish market remains to be seen. Many are joking that after losing money, they're glad the conflict is over.
The market will focus on several key points
Will institutions continue to buy cryptocurrency ETFs?
How are international trade negotiations progressing?
Will the US dollar continue to strengthen?
The ceasefire has ignited market sentiment, but to keep the fire burning, macroeconomic trends will be crucial.
On the other side, the Federal Reserve, which has been adamant about not lowering interest rates, has unexpectedly begun to hint at a potential rate cut in July.
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman hints: May support July rate cut
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated: "If inflation pressure is controlled, I will support quickly lowering the policy rate at the next meeting to bring it closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market."
Bowman has been closely monitoring inflation risks throughout last year. She believes tariffs might cause a "slight, one-time price increase" as she anticipates economic weakness this year. She described the labor market as solid and expects it to be near full employment. However, she cited evidence of vulnerability (weakening labor market activity, slowing economic growth, and narrow employment growth) to demonstrate the Fed's increased focus on potential downside risks to future employment.
Federal Reserve Goolsbee: Should continue rate cuts if trade policy impact disappears
Federal Reserve Goolsbee stated this morning that if the trade policy impact disappears, we should continue rate cuts. He added: "Since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there's been a lack of clear inflation pressure, which might enable the Federal Reserve to cut rates again." The Federal Reserve initially expected to lower rates but paused due to policy uncertainty.
Today's panic index is 47, transitioning to a neutral state.
Waking up to good news, it seems the war might be over, and rate cuts appear promising. Currently, BTC is at $105,000, Ethereum at $2,400, both rebounding to previous key support levels, with several mentioned cryptocurrencies showing 10%-20% gains. I've consistently emphasized that $100,000 for BTC is a good entry point, and holding off seems to be a correct choice. If rates are cut in July, BTC at $100,000 might not be seen again. Trump's strategy is to give a slap and then offer candy, so it's best to be cautious and take profits, while spot holdings can be kept with confidence.
