Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week at $100,970, which is at its lowest level since May. BTC dropped below $99,000 due to escalating geopolitical tensions.
However, major market experts remain optimistic, despite the overall sentiment shifting from neutral to fear.
Bitcoin Below $100,000? What Do Experts Say?
According to BeInCrypto, Bitcoin fell below $100,000 after Iran threatened to close the Hormuz Strait. This follows severe tensions after the US attack on Iran.
Rather than panicking, major industry experts remained optimistic. They maintained confidence based on technical analysis and macroeconomic factors.
Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of RealVision, shared a chart comparing global M2 money supply and Bitcoin price. He argued that Bitcoin falling below $100,000 is not surprising, as it strongly correlates with global M2 supply growth.
The chart shows Bitcoin generally follows M2 growth with a 12-week delay. Pal emphasized that investors should not expect every short-term movement to align perfectly. The overall context is more important.
"There's nothing weird here, but don't expect all movements to align or all timing points to be exact. The most important thing is contextualizing... and yes, altcoins will drop more than BTC during corrections." – Raoul Pal said.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes shared a similar view. He predicted central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, will soon resume aggressive money printing. In previous analyses, Hayes argued that accommodative monetary policy could cause Bitcoin's price to surge, potentially reaching $1 million.
"Do you hear that? ... It's the sound of the money printer spinning to do its patriotic duty. This weakness will pass, and BTC will undoubtedly demonstrate its status as a safe haven." – Arthur Hayes said.
His perspective reinforces the belief that Bitcoin, called "digital gold", will benefit from money printing policies during economic and political uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, popular analyst TechDev also presented a positive outlook. While acknowledging BTC could drop further, he maintained confidence in a significant rebound.
"$95,000 has structural significance. The next $170,000 is closer than you might think." – TechDev said.
Additionally, key figures like Binance founder CZ and Crypto Banter founder Ran Neuner also expressed strong confidence in Bitcoin's recovery.
Data, Individual Investor Sentiment Differs from Market
While experts remained optimistic amid political tensions, retail investors' sentiment painted a different picture. According to CoinMarketCap, the Fear and Greed Index dropped from 65 to 37 in June, reflecting a shift from greed to fear among retail investors.
However, according to Sentiment, Bitcoin often moves contrary to retail investor sentiment. Social volume data indicates that overly positive discussions coincided with recent price drops, while extremely negative discussions during periods like recent US-Iran conflict tend to precede Bitcoin price recoveries.
"Given real-world concerns and uncertainties about cryptocurrency, this week's price movements will be simple:
Retailers shouting 'down' or 'below' = price goes up
Retailers shouting 'up' or 'above' = price goes down." – Sentiment analyst Brian Q said.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered and is trading above $101,000, adding further credibility to the experts' predictions.
However, the next moves by world leaders involved in the conflict remain unpredictable. Such developments could change the market in ways many investors might not anticipate.
