After the U.S. intervention in the Iran conflict, Bitcoin's price dropped below $100,000. Derivatives data shows that traders are actively betting on further market volatility.
VX: TZ7971
Influenced by geopolitical concerns, Bitcoin options open interest reaches $51 billion
Currently, Bitcoin options open interest is hovering around $51 billion, while Ethereum's open interest is approximately $17 billion. This difference reflects an increased focus on Bitcoin amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Open interest measures the total value of outstanding option contracts, typically used to gauge market participation and sentiment. On Deribit, call options still dominate Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest. About 59.73% of Bitcoin options are call options, while 67.39% of Ethereum options are call options, with put options at 40.27% and 32.61% respectively.
Currently, the ETH derivatives market remains bearish. However, the past 24 hours of trading volume shows a more balanced stance. Bitcoin call option trading volume reached 24,168 BTC, with put option trading volume slightly higher at 24,780 BTC.
Ethereum trading activity shows a tendency towards bullish bets, with 53.06% of trading volume used for these contracts. The largest Bitcoin contract is a put BTC bet for June 27, involving over 2,000 BTC, related to expectations that BTC will drop to $95,000 or lower.
Another popular trade is betting on Bitcoin rising to $105,000 by July 11. For Ethereum, the busiest option contracts predict prices might drop to $2,100, $2,200, or even $2,000 by June 27 - indicating some traders are preparing for potential short-term declines.
Despite strong interest in downside protection, especially for short-term expiring contracts, the increase in call options in open interest suggests long-term optimism remains. Crypto traders seem to be preparing for greater short-term volatility while maintaining optimism about this year's prospects.
Additionally, on the Altcoin front, prices have been declining for several months, causing many investors to doubt market recovery. The current situation suggests the Altcoin market may be approaching a turning point, similar to previous cycles just before significant volatility.
Altcoins Down 80%: A Unique Cycle
At the beginning of the year, the market had high expectations for Altcoins. However, most Altcoins not only failed to rebound strongly but have dropped over 80% from their peaks.
This cycle is entirely different from what we've experienced before, making it difficult to compare with past market trends. The current cycle does not follow normal patterns.
We are in a period similar to the end of 2019 or 2020, which in crypto history marks the bottom of Altcoins before a new bull market begins.
Comparing with previous cycles in 2016 and 2019. In these cycles, Altcoins bottomed out amid global uncertainty, while gold prices soared. Looking ahead, the same scenario persists: strong gold prices, global market turbulence, and investors' cautious approach to high-risk assets.
Why Are Altcoins Still Quiet?
Despite Ethereum recently rising 40% against Bitcoin, most Altcoins show no signs of recovery. The lack of confidence and positive sentiment in the Altcoin market is the primary reason.
Currently, even small sell-offs can push prices down, yet a quiet accumulation is occurring; some investors are slowly buying at low prices.
The market's next move depends on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin can bottom out and rebound to around $106,000, this could reignite Ethereum's rise. This second rebound will likely trigger a strong Altcoin market rally.
When this happens, short positions may be liquidated, leading to rapid and significant price increases.
Today's fear index is 47, transitioning to a neutral state.
The U.S. has indeed taken action, bombing three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday morning, with Iran threatening to block the Hormuz Strait in retaliation. Bitcoin ultimately fell below $100,000, but this was within expectations. A sharp drop is an opportunity, waiting for an emotional release. Iran has often threatened to block the Hormuz Strait but never truly implemented it. The market is now sufficiently washed out. If Iran lacks a genuine counterattack, the market will likely surge this week. $100,000 is currently a strong support. Those who entered yesterday can hold, and those with empty positions can pick some strong Altcoins like UNI, JUP, HYPE.
