HashKey Trading Time: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, Bitcoin's $95,000 support level is attracting attention, and ETH faces a test of $2036

1. Market Observation

Keywords: LABUBU, ETH, BTC

Affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial markets experienced significant volatility at Monday's opening, with spot gold prices jumping to $3,398 per ounce, Nasdaq futures falling 0.9%, and WTI crude oil prices opening 3.7% higher. Despite this, the market's initial reaction was relatively restrained. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that if the situation quickly eases, oil prices will fall to $60 per barrel, but continued tensions could cause oil prices to surge to $130 per barrel. In this context, the US dollar's trend has become a market focus. Although boosted by short-term risk-averse sentiment, Vanda Research strategist Viraj Patel believes that as reasons for shorting the US dollar gradually disappear, the dollar's rise may become the main trade this summer.

HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that global financial markets have been violently shaking due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Influenced by Middle Eastern geopolitical factors, gold prices surged 3.17% between June 11 and June 13 but experienced selling after the Fed's June 18 rate decision, declining approximately 0.6% as of June 21. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining a price above $100,000 and only fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000 in the past 42 days. Jeffrey Ding believes that Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from a speculative asset to a long-term investment, with its decentralized and limited supply characteristics becoming increasingly attractive amid global uncertainty, potentially becoming a new investment choice for investors during volatility in traditional safe-haven assets.

In an environment of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after dropping below $99,000. According to analyst KillaXBT, Bitcoin's future trend could have three scenarios: maintaining the current range and creating new highs; falling below the current range to $95,000 and entering a bear market; or testing $95,000 and then rising above $100,000, further increasing to the $114,000-$116,000 range. Analyst @VipRoseTr also provided specific resistance levels ($104,000, $106,000, $110,000) and support levels ($98,000, $95,000). Analyst Crypto Seth pointed out that if Bitcoin breaks below $100,000, it might again test $95,000 and the bull market support band. He stated that a pullback to the $95,000 bull market support band is normal, noting that Bitcoin had approximately 8 pullbacks to this band during the 2017 bull market cycle. Additionally, analyst TedPillows mentioned that Bitcoin is approaching a critical support at the daily EMA-100 line, and if the daily closing price falls below $99,000, it might trigger a further decline to the $92,000-$94,000 range. Trader James Wynn also predicted a short-term price target range of $93,000-$95,000 and warned that tense global geopolitical situations could lead to further price declines. Moreover, the lack of US rate cuts puts pressure on the market, and although global M2 money supply has increased, it is not driven by the US dollar.

Regarding Ethereum, analyst Arslan Butt noted that Ethereum continues to perform weakly, with its price constrained by a downward trend line. It has broken below the previously important support level of $2,378 and is showing a bearish technical pattern. He advised traders to watch its performance at the $2,378 resistance level, warning that failure to break through could lead to further exploration down to the demand levels of $2,114 or even $2,036.

While mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating, the Altcoin market is also relatively flat. A token called $BlackCoin appeared on the Solana chain, with its market narrative centered around an AI-generated "Dark Web coin" claiming to be used for shadow markets and illegal trading networks, currently with a market cap of around $1.4 million. Another token related to geopolitical hot topics is $Oil, positioning itself as "digital oil" inspired by economist Peter Schiff's comment about digital oil being easier to create than real oil, with a current market cap of about $2.9 million. On the Ethereum chain, a quick-pass token $ERC-69 emerged, launched via Klik and inspired by a fictional AI-created proposal, with its market cap once rising to $11 million.

2. Key Data (as of June 23, 12:00 HKT)

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