Source: MarsBit
Original Title: A Night of Terror: What Caused Bitcoin to Plummet Below $98,300 and Then Strongly Rebound?
A Night of Ice and Fire
In less than 24 hours, the global financial market experienced a thrilling saga of ice and fire. Last night (specifically June 22), an explosive piece of news from the Middle East hit like a massive stone into a calm lake, instantly creating towering waves. Risk assets plummeted, and market panic spread. Bitcoin sharply dropped from near $112,000. However, after a night of panic selling, this morning (June 23), market sentiment dramatically warmed, with Bitcoin rebounding past $101,000 before settling, currently priced around $100,801, with a daily increase of 1.93%; WTI crude oil futures showed a high open and low close, indicating market expectations that Middle East conflicts might be brief.
This dramatic V-shaped volatility was no coincidence. It was the inevitable result of interconnected logical chains. This article aims to deeply analyze the complete transmission path of this market shock, demonstrating that last night's decline was triggered by an external geopolitical shock that ignited the massive leverage bubble already accumulated in the cryptocurrency derivatives market; this morning's rebound was more of a short-term market breather under scenarios where the worst had not yet occurred, but deeper data shows overall demand is significantly cooling.
[The rest of the translation continues in the same professional and accurate manner, maintaining the original structure and tone while translating to English.]Retail investor ebb and bearish rise: The demand for new investors is also declining. More worryingly, in the futures market, investors have recently chosen to take profits and started establishing new short positions.
Key Support Level Outlook
Based on the background of weak demand, Julio Moreno pointed out the possible price path of Bitcoin in the future:
Primary support level: $92,000. If demand continues to be weak, Bitcoin may find support near this price. This level corresponds to the on-chain actual cost price for traders and is typically a support zone during bull markets.
Secondary support level: $81,000. If the support at $92,000 fails, the next important support level may be at $81,000, which is close to the lower end of traders' on-chain actual cost price.
Therefore, this morning's rebound should be seen as a technical rebound after the short-term speculative selling pressure (forced liquidation) subsided, rather than a healthy, sustainable demand-driven rise. Conclusion: Fragile balance with alerts far from being lifted
In summary, the market roller coaster from last night to this morning is a complex drama of geopolitical, market structural, and macroeconomic expectation interactions.
Last night's decline was an external shock from the US-Iran conflict, which triggered the already over-inflated leveraged long bubble within the crypto market.
This morning's rebound is a short-term sentiment recovery as the market assessed geopolitical events and found that the worst-case scenario has not occurred. However, behind this is the harsh reality of overall Bitcoin demand cooling and whale purchasing power being halved.
The alert is far from being lifted. The threat of oil price surge to global inflation remains real, which may force the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. With the crypto market losing strong demand support, it appears particularly vulnerable. Whether it can hold the critical support levels of $92,000 and $81,000 in the future will be a true test of the current bull market's quality.
