The US missile strike broke the fragile balance of the crypto market.
Trump launched a strike on Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, with Fordow experiencing a "full payload strike". Although Iran claimed to have completed evacuation in advance, the market apparently could not bear this sudden risk from the Middle East.
VX: TZ7971
BTC dropped to a low of $100,866, briefly rebounding to $102,256, with a 24H decline of 1.22%, approaching the psychological threshold of $100,000; ETH fell to a low of $2,215, currently at $2,263, with a 24H decline of nearly 6.67%; Altcoins such as SOL, Doge, and PEPE simultaneously plummeted, with declines ranging from 4% to 8%.
In the past 24 hours, network liquidations reached $675 million, with long liquidations at $595 million, ETH liquidations at $275 million, the highest for the period, and BTC liquidations also reaching $151 million.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 49 (Good) to 42 (Fear), with sentiment slightly subdued.
Market Expectations
This sudden geopolitical storm made the market realize again that Bitcoin is not a "safe-haven gold", but a "volatility amplifier". However, is this decline a release of extreme sentiment triggered by the "Middle East geopolitical crisis"? The market focus will shift to the overlay of the Federal Reserve's policy path and regional situation.
The Middle East situation is far from settled, and the market is still pricing "risk", not the "outcome".
Meanwhile, macro-level changes are quietly occurring: Although the Federal Reserve will start a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, with three cuts totaling 100 basis points, recent signals from officials, including Powell, suggest that "rates are close to neutral, and future rate cuts may slow down". The market's expectation for rate cuts in 2025 has been reduced from 4 to 2-3 times; long-term US Treasury yields are rising, the dollar index is strengthening, and the global financial environment is showing a "de-risking" trend. As a risk asset, the crypto market naturally becomes the first "clearance" target.
The subsequent BTC price trend will largely depend on the game of these three variables:
Will geopolitical tensions further escalate? If Iran strongly counterattacks and the US or Israel intensify their response, it will push the market further into risk-aversion mode, with gold strengthening and crypto under pressure. Conversely, if the situation remains in a "conflict without breaking out" state, sentiment may gradually recover.
Will the Federal Reserve's liquidity attitude change? If the Fed releases more dovish signals at the July or September FOMC meetings, the crypto market will get a "policy breathing period" with funds flowing back. Otherwise, more pullback risks remain.
Will BTC's technical structure break the bull market pattern? Currently, BTC is in a "strong support zone" between $100,000 and $105,000. If it fails to hold $96,000 to $98,000, it will trigger a larger technical correction; if it rebounds and stabilizes, it may build a new consolidation platform.
From a game perspective, this is more like a dual wash of "liquidity + sentiment" rather than the end of the bull market. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets is weakening, and future prices will be more driven by on-chain structure, institutional positioning, and policy negotiations.
Next, whether Bitcoin can defend the $100,000 psychological level is of utmost importance.
