Iran’s trump card: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, will the global energy supply be disrupted?

The Strait of Hormuz: A crisis point on the lifeline of global energy

About 20 million barrels of crude oil are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz every day, accounting for about 20% of the world's daily oil demand. This narrow waterway is located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is strategically located and is known as the "throat" of the global energy supply chain.

As the regional situation becomes tense, Iran has once again threatened to blockade Hormuz, which could not only cause energy supply disruptions, but also trigger a wave of soaring international oil prices, detonating a storm of global inflation and economic instability.

The Middle East accounts for 30% of global oil exports: risks are concentrated in one strait

According to statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Middle Eastern countries export about 30 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for 30% of the world's daily demand of about 100 million barrels. Of this, nearly 70% must be transported through the Strait of Hormuz, making this waterway one of the world's most vulnerable energy bottlenecks.

Once Hormuz is blocked, the transportation of at least 20 million barrels of oil and natural gas per day will be interrupted, and the supply gap will be difficult to fill immediately.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE take a different approach: Pipeline detours to avoid risks

In order to reduce their dependence on Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have actively invested in bypassing oil pipelines and building backup ports. Although the results are limited, they have indeed improved the flexibility of energy exports to a certain extent.

East-West Pipeline: Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu solution still not working to its full potential

Saudi Arabia's "Petroline" connects the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with a designed capacity of 7 million barrels per day, which is the largest bypass solution at present. However, for a long time, this pipeline has only operated at about half of its capacity. According to past statistics, there has been a supply gap of more than 2.5 million barrels per day since 2006.

UAE Fujairah pipeline: capacity still cannot support the overall situation

The Abu Dhabi–Fujairah pipeline of the United Arab Emirates spans about 250 miles and transports oil directly to the Arabian Sea without passing through Hormuz. Its daily capacity is about 1.6 million barrels, and it is equipped with the Fujairah oil storage facility that can store 70 million barrels. It is one of the most practical alternative channels at present, but it is still slightly insufficient in the face of overall demand.

Iran, Oman and the new land option: many detours but limited effect

The Ramlet Khelah border crossing between Saudi Arabia and Oman has been revitalized due to the improvement of bilateral relations, and land transportation has increased. However, due to the limitations of terrain and infrastructure, it can currently only handle general containers and non-oil goods.

Iran launched the Goreh–Jask pipeline in 2021, with a designed capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day for export to the Gulf of Oman, theoretically bypassing Hormuz. However, due to political pressure and operational bottlenecks, the pipeline has not been reopened since September 2024.

What will happen to the global market if Hormuz is blocked?

A blockade of Hormuz would lead to supply disruptions, soaring insurance costs, and increased shipping risks. According to market estimates, oil prices could quickly rise above $100 per barrel, further pushing up inflationary pressures and causing severe shocks to import-dependent economies such as Europe, Japan, and India.

In addition, if oil and gas facilities around Hormuz are damaged, such as attacks on the ports of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia or Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, global supply disruptions could last longer.

Hormuz remains the "single point" for global energy

Even if Middle Eastern countries continue to diversify their export routes, the overall replacement volume is still far less than the 20 million barrels per day of the Strait. If regional conflicts escalate in the future or sea transport lines are attacked, the global energy market will still be extremely fragile and cannot withstand a long-term blockade.

This also shows that even if oil exporting countries intend to take a detour, Hormuz is still the key lifeline of global energy. Any fluctuation will affect not only the oil price, but also the overall economic stability and geopolitical structure.

US President Trump announced on Saturday Eastern Time that the US military had successfully carried out air strikes on three important Iranian nuclear facilities and said that all fighter jets had returned safely. This raid represents another deterioration in US-Iran relations and may also have a far-reaching impact on global energy supply and geopolitical situation.

Three major nuclear facilities become attack targets B-2 bombers are put into combat

Trump said via social media: "We have completed a very successful attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities - Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan." He added that the main target was the Fordow facility, where the US military dropped a "full load of bombs". After the operation, all fighter jets had safely left Iranian airspace.

It is understood that earlier that day, several B-2 stealth bombers took off from Missouri and flew across the Pacific Ocean to carry out missions. The B-2 is one of the few US military aircraft that can carry the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a large bomb designed to destroy underground nuclear facilities.

The action symbolizes the official outbreak of direct military conflict between the United States and Iran

This raid represents the official entry of the United States and Iran into direct armed conflict. In the past, the United States mainly used its ally Israel to put pressure on Iran. This time, the U.S. military took action personally, marking a major escalation of the situation. White House officials confirmed that Trump had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu afterwards, showing that the two sides were highly coordinated.

Trump has repeatedly stressed in the past that he does not want to be involved in a Middle East war in his second term, but this move shows a policy about-face. In fact, just two days ago, Trump also said that the United States would observe within two weeks whether the Israeli-Iranian conflict could be resolved through diplomacy.

Diplomatic efforts rejected, hopes for peace between the US and Iran slim

Trump pointed out last Thursday: "Given the opportunity for negotiations with Iran in the future, I will decide within two weeks whether to take action." But now that the war has broken out, it means that the diplomatic window between the United States and Iran may have closed.

The White House has been trying to negotiate with Iran over the past few months, and Trump even persuaded Netanyahu to postpone the attack. However, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei recently warned: "Any US military invasion will cause irreversible and serious damage."

Iran's possible retaliation: Strait of Hormuz becomes a key flashpoint

After the U.S. airstrike, the outside world is concerned about how Iran will respond. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, pointed out that Iran may deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that will seriously threaten global oil supply.

The Strait of Hormuz is a shipping channel for about 20% of the world's crude oil. Once blocked by mines, it will be difficult for ships to navigate. Croft revealed: "We have received reports that Iran is actively interfering with the signal transmitters of ships."

Qatar's state energy company and Greece's shipping ministry have issued warnings to their ships, advising them to avoid the area. More alerts are expected as the situation develops.

Nuclear weapons mystery remains unsolved, US and Israel take a tough stance

The United States and Israel have long insisted that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons. As early as his first term, Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement signed by the Obama administration and many countries, believing that the agreement could not effectively curb Iran's uranium enrichment activities.

Although Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified in Congress in March that the United States assessed that Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program and that Khamenei had not yet approved it, Trump himself did not accept this statement.

"I don't care what she says, I think they're very close to having a nuclear weapon," Trump said in an interview aboard Air Force One last week.

The Middle East powder keg explodes again, and the world is paying attention to the direction of the situation

The US airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities is a symbol of the escalation of the war in the Middle East, and may also have a severe impact on global energy prices, geopolitics and international negotiation patterns. Although Trump shouted in his statement that "now is the time for peace", this move is probably still a long way from peace.

Trump is expected to deliver a national speech at 10 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, and the outside world is closely watching Iran's response and next moves.

U.S. regulators are increasingly strengthening their supervision of the cryptocurrency market, and the legitimacy of the enforcement measures has also attracted much attention from the industry. Recently, the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Trust publicly sent a letter to the Inspector General of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), accusing the agency of initiating a lawsuit against it in 2022 as an enforcement action for self-interest and abuse of power, and revealed that there was a false report behind the lawsuit, which aroused doubts about the fairness of CFTC's law enforcement.

Gemini Trust says CFTC abused its authority

Gemini Trust sent a letter to CFTC Inspector General Christopher Skinner last Friday (June 14), accusing the CFTC of filing a lawsuit against its exchange in 2022 based on a false complaint made by a whistleblower in retaliation. The letter strongly criticized CFTC lawyers for using the Commodity Exchange Act to file a lawsuit against Gemini Trust out of selfish motives.

Gemini Trust said CFTC lawyers are pursuing glory through this "bounty hunting style litigation" rather than based on considerations of fair law enforcement.

False report came from former senior executive

Gemini Trust further pointed out that the main evidence in the 2022 lawsuit came from the whistleblower information submitted by its former operations director Benjamin Small in 2017. Gemini claimed that Benjamin Small was fired in 2017 for allegedly covering up a fraud involving millions of dollars in insider kickbacks, and then provided false information to the CFTC out of retaliation.

This insider fraud case involves companies such as Hashtech LLC, Cardano Singapore PTE Ltd. and their senior executives. The suspected behaviors include collaborating to manipulate transactions, abusing the fee structure, and illegally obtaining large kickbacks from Gemini Trust. According to Gemini Trust, Benjamin Small approved these suspicious transactions while serving as operations director, which eventually led to his dismissal by Gemini Trust founders Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss.

CFTC Initiates Investigation Based on Report

Gemini Trust said that the CFTC Enforcement Division did not conduct sufficient verification after receiving a report from Benjamin Small, and quickly launched an investigation into the company in 2018. The report pointed out that when Gemini Trust submitted Bitcoin contract review materials to the CFTC, it did not disclose the risk that its products might be manipulated.

The CFTC ultimately filed a lawsuit against Gemini Trust in June 2022, alleging that the company made false or misleading statements when submitting contract review documents in 2017.

Behind the $5 million settlement: No choice

Gemini Trust paid $5 million to settle the allegations in January 2024, but Gemini Trust emphasized that this move was only to avoid long-term litigation and did not admit or deny the CFTC's findings. In a letter to the CFTC, Gemini pointed out that it had no choice at the time, and claimed that the Bitcoin contract had actually been in operation for 19 months, and no market manipulation had occurred during this period, indicating that the basis for the lawsuit was weak.

Calls for internal reforms at the CFTC

CFTC Acting Chairwoman Caroline Pham issued a statement in May 2024 saying that the CFTC needs to reflect on some of its enforcement actions. Gemini Trust believes this is a positive message for rectification and reform, and calls on the CFTC to make a long-term commitment and deep reflection to prevent the recurrence of abuse of power.

Gemini Trust stressed that this transformation must be accompanied by the restoration of integrity on both sides to uphold the rule of law. Gemini also expressed its willingness to assist law enforcement investigations to the best of its ability.

Gemini Trust’s letter to the CFTC highlights that as regulation strengthens, the enforcement procedures and fairness of law enforcement agencies may become the key to the sustainable development of the virtual currency industry.