Political Crisis in Iran and Its Potential Impact on the Global Cryptocurrency Market
According to the latest report, the eight-day military conflict between Israel and Iran is opening up a fundamental political instability phase. If the Tehran regime collapses, the global energy market will face the possibility of a sudden price increase, directly affecting cryptocurrency activities.
Experts note that this war is not only related to the potential nuclear weapon manufacturing. It is also a power play where Iran might fall into a power vacuum, creating conditions for volatile fluctuations in nano markets and stable coins.
So far, oil prices have increased by about 10%, but have not yet reached 80 USD/barrel for both Brent and WTI. In fact, there has been no physical oil flow disruption as the internal conflict remains latent. However, analysts warn that prolonging the conflict could expand volatility margins in the cryptocurrency market.
Israel Raises Stakes, Trump Shows Clear Support
President Donald Trump has publicly threatened Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is considering supporting Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The Washington and Jerusalem administrations are currently discussing the political consequences of this action.
Israel's Defense Minister, Mr. Israel Katz, ordered the military to expand operations to "eliminate the regime". Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while denying the regime change goal, acknowledged that the current Iranian leadership might not survive this conflict.
Expert Scott Modell, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, said Israel is trying to weaken the Iranian regime's military control to trigger internal resistance, potentially leading to an internal regime overthrow. "They don't call it regime change from the outside, but from the inside," Modell said. An assassination plan for Khamenei was anticipated, but Trump intervened to prevent it.
However, experts warn that there are no clear signs indicating the Iranian regime is about to collapse. Nevertheless, according to Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan, if Iran's internal political situation becomes chaotic, oil prices could maintain high levels long-term, strongly impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Expected Supply-Demand Shock in the Coming Period
JPMorgan has tracked eight regime change cases in oil-exporting countries since 1979. On average, oil prices increased by 76% during these fluctuations and subsequently remained over 30% higher. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, oil prices nearly tripled, causing global recession. In 2011, after Libya overthrew Gaddafi, oil prices rose from 93 USD to 130 USD/barrel within three months, pushing the world economy into a second crisis.
Expert Scott Modell believes a similar event in Iran would cause much greater damage than Libya, as Iran is a much larger oil-exporting country. "We need clear signs that the regime is about to collapse before the market can start pricing and predicting disruptions exceeding 3 million barrels per day," he said.
In a scenario of Iranian chaos, the risk comes not only from attacks on oil fields but also from Tehran's potential to exploit oil tankers in the Persian Gulf or block the Hormuz Strait, which transports 20% of global oil supply.
Currently, there are reports that Iran has actively attacked ship positioning systems, while QatarEnergy and Greek maritime agencies warn ships to avoid this area. Analysts predict a high probability of military conflict in the region, potentially driving oil prices up and directly affecting cryptocurrency markets related to energy, such as Bitcoin and high-liquidation stablecoins.
If the United States directly intervenes to resolve the situation through nuclear airstrikes or attacks on uranium centers, oil prices could rise an additional 4 to 6 USD/barrel. Conversely, prolonged tensions could disrupt oil exports for an extended period, generating value mutations in the cryptocurrency market.
Expert Bob McNally warns that the possibility of long-term Hormuz blockage is very high. "The United States might anticipate negotiations or actions within a few hours, but in reality, it could extend to weeks or even months," he said. This means the cryptocurrency market must prepare for the most extreme scenarios, with NO2 transaction flows or energy-related stablecoins developing explosively.
